While the forex markets remained generally steady, stock traders experienced a roller coaster ride overnight. DOW surged in initial trading to as high as 26086.12 (up 283 pts) but reversed gain and closed down -0.04% at 25792.86. That's the biggest single day reversal since February 2016. Similarly, S&P 500 surged to 2807.54 but closed down -0.35%. 10 year yield was relatively steady, closed down just -0.008 at 2.544. TNX is still struggling to have the momentum to get through 2.621 key resistance. A factor is the concerns over government shutdown in the US. The Congress will need to pass a spending bill by the end of this week to avoid the shutdown and it's seen as a risk by many traders
Dollar may be ready for a near term rebound
In the currency markets, Dollar remains in red against all major currencies for the week. Canadian Dollar follows as the second weakest one as traders are cautious ahead of BoC rate decision. Aussie and Swiss Franc are so far the strongest ones for the week. A key technical development to note is that the latest selling leg in Dollar looks rather weak. That is, EUR/USD jumped through 1.2296 temporary top, to just 1.2322 and is now back at 1.2265. USD/JPY dipped through 110.32, to 110.18 but is now back at 110.57. There are two key levels that Dollar pairs in in proximity to. The levels are 1.3835 resistance in GBP/USD and 110.14 fibonacci level in USD/JPY. The greenback could be ready for a near term rebound.
Canadian Dollar in range, traders cautious on BoC hawkish hold
Bank of Canada rate decision is the main focus today. After strings of strong economic data, BoC is generally expected to hike interest rate by 25bps to 1.25%. That will be the third hikes of the current tightening cycle. Canadian Dollar stays in range trading (started since January 5) as traders are awaiting the rate decision. The loonie struggled to follow others to extend gain against the greenback since last week, even though WTI crude oil extended up trend to just inch below 65 handle. An explanation is that some traders are cautious on the chance of a "hawkish hold" by BoC today. That is, while BoC also expects itself to raise interest rate in Q1, it wait until March to do so. In that case, we'd probably see more range trading in USD/CAD above 1.2354. Nonetheless, we're still a high chance of powering through 1.2354 support should BoC delivers the rate hike.
Elsewhere
Australia Westpac consumer confidence rose 1.8% in January, home loans rose 2.1% mom in November. Japan machine orders rose 5.7% mom in November. Eurozone CPI final is the main feature in European session. US will release industrial production, NAHB housing index and Fed's Beige Book economic report later today.