Dollar surged against the broadly weak Japanese yen overnight on the bad of strong rebound in treasury yields. Indeed, 10 -year yield had the biggest 4-day jump since March and had a strong close at 2.593. That was impressive comparing to last week's low of 2.402. 30 year yield also closed strongly at 3.435, comparing to last week's low of 3.267. Dollar index breached 80.60 resistance this week which carries near term bullish implications. In the stock markets, S&P 500 close slightly down by -0.73 pts at 1924.24, staying close to record high. Overall, traders seem to be optimistic that this week's heavy weight data would show the underlying health of the US economy.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George (non-voter until 2016) called for an earlier rate hike than the Fed's forecast, amidst concerns over inflation and economic bubbles. According to George, "as the headwinds weighing on the recovery thus far start to fade, policy may need to react sooner than what is suggested in the FOMC's projections”. While the Fed has suggested a "gradual path for the federal funds rate” given the staff's economic projections, she believed it would "likely be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate somewhat sooner and at a faster pace”. Dollas Fed President Richard Fisher said that he favored ending the QE in October. But he also noted that the "odds are slim" for rate hike this year.
The strong rebound in the 10-year yield and break of 2.579 resistance indicates that the corrective fall from 3.036 is finished at 2.402 already. Near term outlook is bullish for a rise back to 2.808 and above. Overall, the index should be in a consolidation pattern from 3.036 and we'd expect more range trading in medium term because the outlook on the economy is cleared. Thus, strong resistance should be seen below 3.036 to bring reversal. Of course, dollar and yield would have the face the tests of ADP employment, services PMI today, as well as the non-farm payroll report on Friday.
Elsewhere, UK BRC shop prices dropped -1.4% yoy in May. Australian GDP rose more than expected by 1.1% qoq in Q1. Looking ahead, UK services PMI, Eurozone services PMI, GDP and PPI will be released in European session. Euro stays soft ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. While some volatility could be triggered in crosses by today's data, we'd expect traders to stay very cautious ahead of tomorrow. BoC will announce rate decision today and would very likely stand pat at 1.00%. Canada will also release trade balance. US will release ADP employment, trade balance, non-farm productivity and ISM services. Fed will also release Beige Book.