The major equity indexes closed mixed Tuesday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as trading volumes declined from the previous session. Of those that rose on the session, all registered new all-time closing highs. All the charts remain in near-term uptrends and above their 50 DMAs. However, while the charts remain bullish, the data dashboard and valuation have intensified their cautionary signals that suggest the potential for some retracement of the current rally, that may yield better buying opportunities, has increased in its probability. As such, we are maintaining our near-term “neutral” outlook for the equity markets currently.
On the charts, the indexes closed mixed yesterday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ on lighter trading volumes.
- The DJT (page 4), MID (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5) made new closing all-time highs as the rest declined.
- All the indexes remain in near-term uptrends and above their 50 DMAs.
- Breadth remains positive as well with the cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ in uptrends and above their 50 DMAs.
- All but one of the stochastic levels are overbought but have yet to generate bearish crossover signals.
The data, however, has intensified its cautionary message to a point that suggest near-term market risk remains elevated.
- The 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators remain in overbought territory (All Exchange: +77.78 NYSE: +92.79 NASDAQ: +66.48).
- The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio (page 9) is back at bearish levels at 24.0 as the number of insider selling transactions is well-outweighing purchases.
- Meanwhile, the Rydex Ratio (contrarian indicator) bearish signal has increased to 1.44 as the leveraged ETF traders extended their leveraged long exposure.
- As stated previously, when we have found insiders stepping up to the sell window while the leveraged ETF traders continued to press their leveraged long exposure, insiders have typically been on the right side of the trade, in our experience.
- Also, this week’s Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator page 9) saw a decline in bearish advisors as bullish sentiment increased and remains bearish at 196.4/59.2. The same dynamic was registered on the AAII Bear/Bull Ratio at 28.69/43.02.
- The valuation gap remains extended with the SPX forward multiple rising to 22.8 with consensus forward 12-month earnings estimates from Bloomberg of $158.34 while the “rule of 20” finds fair value at 19.1.
- The SPX forward earnings yield is 4.39% with the 10-year Treasury yield at 0.87%.
In conclusion, while the charts remain positive, the market’s overbought conditions combined with sentiment and valuation levels continue to suggest to us that near-term risk has become elevated. As such, we are maintaining our near-term outlook for the equity markets at “neutral”.
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