The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released Tuesday morning based on data collected through February 11. The headline number of 92.2, was a decrease from the January final reading of 97.8, which is an upward revision from 96.3. Today's number was below the Investing.com forecast of 97.0.
Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.
"Consumer confidence decreased in February, after posting a modest gain in January," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessment of current conditions weakened, primarily due to a less favorable assessment of business conditions. Consumers' short-term outlook grew more pessimistic, with consumers expressing greater apprehension about business conditions, their personal financial situation, and to a lesser degree, labor market prospects. Continued turmoil in the financial markets may be rattling consumers, but their assessment of current conditions suggests the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace in the near-term."
Putting the Latest Number in Context
The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.
On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 45% level of all the monthly data points since June 1977. That's a decrease from 56% previous month.
For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.
And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis, although a bit of spread has appeared in the second half of 2015.
