Bitcoin: Despite Oversold Signs, It is Too Soon To Go Long

Published 03/12/2019, 05:05 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Bitcoin has changed little in last days and it continues to move in range on the short term. We'll see what will happen in the upcoming days because right now it is premature to predict a direction. Price has increased a little after the failure to reach the 3215.2 former low. It moves sideways but remains to see if this will be a consolidation or a distribution. Bitcoin has shown some oversold signs, but this is not enough for me to go long again on this crypto.

Bitcoin, Daily Chart


The current rebound was somehow expected after the failure to reach and retest the downside 50% Fibonacci line of the black descending pitchfork in the last attempts. It has come back above the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and now it has found a temporary resistance at the inside sliding line (sl).

A valid breakout will send the rate towards the 4488.0 static resistance and maybe it will reach the upside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork as well. Personally, I'm expecting to see an aggressive move after this indecision, but the direction is uncertain.

The upside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork represents a very, very strong dynamic resistance, you can see that the rate has failed to stay above it in the last months.

Bitcoin is pressuring the inside sliding parallel line and it could breakout above it after the failure to test and retest the median line (ml). Unfortunately, if it will fail to increase significantly in the upcoming days it could drop like a rock again.

Personally, I would have liked to see one or two false breakdowns below the median line (ml) and below the 3215.2 and 2980.4 static support levels with an important (huge) spike down, this would have been a great bullish signal. Right now I'm skeptical because the rate has failed to reach and retest the broken 350% Fibonacci line and because the buyers seem exhausted.

Bitcoin could drop again and it could reach fresh new lows if it stays below the upside 50% Fibonacci line of the black descending pitchfork. A valid breakout above the upside 50% Fibonacci line could signal that the major downside movement could be completed and the rate could approach and reach the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork.

You should know that a failure to pass above the sliding line (sl) and a valid breakdown below the median line (ml) and below the 3215.2 could announce a further drop towards the 2000 psychological level.

As I've said, I want a real confirmation before going long again. I want to see an aggressive false breakdown with a great separation or several retests/breakdown attempts of the near-term support levels to see how strong the bulls are.

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