Australian dollar recovered after RBA held the cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. Some economists expected a cut today and thus the reactions was a little surprise to the market. The central bank noted that "having eased monetary policy at the previous meeting, it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being". However, it also noted in the statement that "further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead". And, the board will assess the case at forthcoming meetings. Thus, RBA is keeping an easing bias and would still likely cut rate again later this week. Hence, the strength in recovery in Aussie is limited so far. Also released from Australia, building approvals rose 7.9% mom in January versus expectation of -1.8% mom fall. Current account deficit was narrower than expected AUD -9.6b in Q4.
Overnight, US equities extended their record run. DJIA rose 155.93 pts, or 0.86%, to close at 18288.63. S&P 500 rose 12.89 pts, or 0.61% to 2117.39. Both were new records. Dollar index also breached 95.48 resistance to 11 year high of 95.51 but follow through momentum is weak so far. Technically, we're staying bullish in the index and expect further rally to 61.8% projection of 87.62 to 95.48 from 94.05 at 98.90. However, it should be noted that the pattern from 95.48 could be seen as a triangle and the subsequent move could be terminal. In other words, break of 94.05 support would be an early signal medium term reversal and would bring deeper correction.
In Europe, European Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovskis said that Greece might need a third bailout deal as the current program expires in June after the four month extension. He noted that they were "how Greece would move back to the market financing with the help of a precautionary arrangement or enhanced-conditions credit line." However, he said that this scenario "seems less likely given recent financial instability".
Elsewhere, Japan monetary base rose 36.7% yoy in February, labor cash earnings rose 1.3% yoy in January. Swiss GDP will be released in European session, also UK construction PMI and Eurozone PPI. In US session, Canada GDP, IPPI and RMPI will be featured.