It’s time for me to travel to the place I always prefer: way out on a limb.
My Apple (O:AAPL) credentials are sound. I bought my first Macintosh in early 1984. I worked at Apple headquarters for several years in the late 1980s. When did I buy my first iPhone? The day it came out. First iPad? The day it came out. I even wrote a few books about the Macintosh. And some of you know the videos I’ve done about that Silicon Valley deity, Mr. Steven Paul Jobs. So I don’t have any anti-Apple ax to grind.
Having said all that, I think Apple’s best days are behind it. The fat and happy executive staff, led by the charisma-free Tim Cook, is sitting on top of the most valuable company on the planet. Subtly and slowly, though, Apple has already lost one-quarter of its entire market cap.
Tuesday, of course, is when Apple reports their earnings, after the close. I have no clue about Apple’s fundamentals, but I’ve seen a chart or two in my life, and this long-term chart of Apple looks jumping-up-and-down bearish.
Looking a bit closer, there is a massive topping pattern which I’ve helpfully shaded in green for you. The strength we had late last week pushed up right back toward all that overhead supply, and early on Monday, I shorted the stock at what I hope is a price I’ll be pleased with.
Now here’s the going-out-on-a-limb part: I suspect that Apple is more likely to be down on Wednesday than up. I further think that, in the months ahead, Apple is going to find itself at a place no one dare imagine: in the 70s. I have tinted in area below which shows a suggested target, which just so happens to also close a gap beautifully set before a massive roar higher in the price a couple of years ago.
I had some lunatic things to say about oil late in 2014, although I held my tongue about some price projections since they seemed so preposterous. I’m not going to offer Apple this courtesy. I think the 25% drop they’ve seen is going to blossom into a nearly 50% drop. I suspect ol’ Cookie is going to be checking out his ridiculous Apple Watch sooner or later to see when it’s time for him to finally leave and enjoy the vast personal fortune he acquired from Jobs’ genius.