A prominent former Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) broker just penned a scathing piece on the historically high valuation of the U.S. stock market, arguing that stock prices aren’t pricing growing risks adequately.
Thomas H. Kee Jr. says that liquidity risks abound both at home and abroad right now, brought about by monetary tightening by central bankers. The combination of higher rates and a reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, he writes, could be enough to pop the asset bubble he sees in equities.
Kee also notes that the S&P 500 is trading at an extremely high earnings multiple around 25, versus the historical norm of 14.5. Here’s his conclusion from a recent MarketWatch piece:
The risks in the market today are extremely high for buy-and-hold investors because the liquidity picture is changing for the worse, and that is fundamental in nature. But longer-term technical observations point toward serious risks as well.
My longer-term macroeconomic analysis, The Investment Rate, is offering warnings that this market is 66% higher than it should be. Given the changes in liquidity and technical observations happening now, those risk warnings should be heard with an acute ear.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (AX:SPY) (NYSE:SPY) was trading at $243.89 per share on Wednesday afternoon, up $1.7 (+0.70%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 9.11%.
SPY currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #1 of 114 ETFs in the Large Cap Blend ETFs category.