Brent has declined since last Thursday's open as lockdowns expanded across China and participants started pricing in weaker demand, ignoring, for now, the lack of consensus on further sanctions against Russia. According to reports, Turkey might host in-person talks between Ukrainian and Russian leaders at the start of the week.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension around $129 remains in focus as a critical resistance. Unless fundamentals significantly change, a breakthrough above this remains highly unlikely. $100 is the primary psychological area below, which might also drive a bounce if it were to be tested this week. Based on the absence of saturation signals and declining ATR, consolidation around $115 seems possible in the next few days.
The OPEC+ meeting on Thursday is likely to lead to a continuation of recent supply increases, at least in theory; however, the cartel and its allies remain significantly below their targets for production. Baker Hughes' rig count will also probably be watched more closely this week due to the possibility of a peak earlier this month around 531.