After Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls shows an increase of 271,000 jobs, almost all economists are expecting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in December. In addition, hourly income jumped a bigger than expected 0.4%. While all this news sounds like the U.S. economy is roaring ahead, there are troubling signals yet unexplained.
Of major concern should be the performance of many major retailers like as Target Corporation (NYSE:N:TGT), Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:N:KSS) and Macy's, Inc. (NYSE:M). These retailers generate a majority of their sales within the United States. The reason 'U.S. sales' are stressed and why under-performing Wal-Mart (NYSE:N:WMT) was excluded, is because they have a ton of sales outside of the country, thus the currency issue is a major issue. What's important is the price action of retailers that generate a majority of their sales inside the U.S. Target (NYSE:TGT), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) and Macy's all do and their stock performance is horrid. Something is very wrong.
One way or another, retail stocks going into Black Friday and Christmas should be the hottest thing, yet they are all near or at 52-week lows. So what gives? What's the disconnect and where is the problem? Something is wrong and we're likely to see something major in the next few weeks. Whatever happens is likely to clarify this major divergence.