Well, Wednesday wasn’t so bad. Hopefully the Tim-Knight-Sullen-o-Meter compelled a few aggressive souls to short the market early on Wednesday. The boys at Elliott Wave are still calling for a pop on the /ES to 4244 before this thing exhausts itself. I hope not; I really don’t think I could stomach a 130 point rally on it.
Anyway, for the immediate moment, we are now in our 8th day of captivity. We are all banging around a teensy weensy little range, but a point made here that I agree with is……….at the least bulls seem INCAPABLE of pushing this pig any higher. Here is the SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA):
Here is the worldwide equities (sans North America) fund iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSE:EFA), against which I have a ton of September puts.
The real estate fund iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR)is behaving itself very, very nicely. I’d love to see a failure of that May low, of course, in the weeks ahead.
Tech stocks, via Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), in spite of the “correction” are still massively overvalued, as this top suggests. I think things are really going to hit the fan between now and the end of July, when a hodgepodge of big companies announces things aren’t going so great in earnings-land. Some of these announcements will be at regular earnings dates. Others, I suspect, will be well before.
I was particularly pleased to see the Transports, via iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT), take a hard 3%+ tumble. I can only assume that skyrocketing fuel prices are strangling the profit margins of these firms.
The big daddy of them all, the SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), has likewise spent eight days in a horrid little paper bag of a range, trying to get SOME kind of signal whether to throw sanity to the wind (bullish) or be logical (bearish).
I would also say the flimsy setup in the banks, via the Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (NYSE:XLF), portends good fortune for the bears. We might have to endure next week, and another FOMC decision, but—we’ll get there.
