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3 Investment Strategies That Will Look Idiotic 30 Years From Now

Published 02/05/2017, 02:52 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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Chris Cole, of Artemis Capital, recently asked, “What investments do you justify by common knowledge today that will look foolish 40 years from now?”

Here are a few I think might qualify:

First has to be embracing a passive approach to equity investing just as the SPX median stock becomes more highly valued than ever before in history…

Median Price/Revenue Ratio of SPX Components 1986-2017

…and the smartest guys in the room loudly proclaim, “sold to you!”

Insider Transactions Ratio

Next I would submit short-selling volatility…

VIX Futures Positioning 2005-2017

…when economic policy uncertainty is soaring to record highs is probably not very wise, either.

VIX vs Level of Policy Uncertainty

Finally, maxing out the duration of your fixed income exposure…

US Bond Market Duration Sensitivity 1989-2017

…when both nominal and real interest rates test their all-time lows doesn’t strike me as a great recipe for investing success.

US Yields Vs Inflation 1980-2017

Time will tell.

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