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United States 10-Year Bond Yield

NYSE
Currency in USD
4.161
-0.052(-1.23%)
Real-time Data

United States 10-Year Discussions

I call them technology premiums others call them multiples are getting eliminated. I think it's part of cutting costs as margin borrowing is quit. Clean energy has more externallities than direct support economically. Like I said it's mostly r&d but the technology takes time to have benefits.
Created from thin air, backed by globalist central banksters currencies made from thin air.. it's time freedom loving people overthrow that whole cabal. World wide. Know their faces,.
9am will be indicator of labor market dispersion. Waiting to see reaction.
Chance of rate cuts increased again thanks to the last jobs report. That's what no one is talking about. For reasons of fud and fomo
U6 was 8% worst since 2021. None the less jobs were added. 9am is a report of aggregate labor market activities may show temporary or underemployment, hard to find jobs etc.
China inflation tanks.
that's gonna be the USA one day.
I don't see inflation causing a huge shift in yields because tariffs and government spending cuts are bruising demand and it's headed for recession. Inflation will could stagnate like others have said. I will read about but thats the idea. just like 2018, yields will likely head down and all I can do is trade a channel representing that.
Banks are seeing above target inflation above target, 1% GDP growth, concentrated in Q2, 2H possibly no growth. Assumptions some compromises on tariffs & some restraint in government spending. 2H rates may come down as economy enters zero growth. Terminal rate may be 4.0-3.9 due to tariffs keeping us at 3% inflation. That put 10yr back to 4.75 if no recession but banks see 2H US recession. Guessing we see 4.6 again but government restraint hopefully not sending 10yr upside risk ... but it is there none the less. Germany, India, Sweden, Spain, Indonesia is DXY continues to decline should see growth. Also Taiwan.
What is 2h? did you mean q2? you lost your mind. haha.
the fed is expected hold rates but is showing care for the economic growth and inflation. They probably expect employment to remain stable/strong.
The fed balance sheet continues falling and is down 25% from the peak in 2022. Trumps first term saw no growth in the balance sheet until 2019 when it started falling.
how much is bond buying brokerage charges
US Treasure ETF Very low cost is what I buy
Most brokerages do not charge on treasuries. Typical markup on corporates is $1-3 per bond depending on your broker and size of orders.
how much is bond buying brokerage charges
They scrapped clean energy. It's got to many problems. Most notable is electric work trucks, semis, and other industrial applications in shipping.
Layoff notices highest since 2020.(CNBC) PMI's showed rate of price increases accelerating. Stagflation anyone?
The reports today said productivity and unit labor costs were better than expected. I was doing a study on these figures and I like they are good. In short, we are utilizing technology like advanced manufacturing and specifically AI to improve efficiency and output. I like to see action and I hope the investment in Ai will yield something. Clean energy has largely proven to be R&D.
Whirlpool is trapped from 2017-18, tariffs done capriciously can dis-employment & and demand destructive as only the top 1/3 can afford. So boycott for all publicly traded companies that did not throw a hail Mary pass to seek new horizons rather than price hikes! Beautiful bond market to weather the storm.
oil has been almost 1:1 positive correlation with bond yields in the past 2 years. today oil went down big some divergence occurred.
Do you remember prior time frames or circumstances when there wasn't a correlation?
Until the turn of the century, the entire economy relied almost exclusively on oil, whether it be transportation, electricity generation or production. However, we have been transitioning from an oil based economy to a mixed energy economy. As a result oil does not seem to be as good a predictor of inflation and thus yields. Just my observation.
Interesting, thanks.
To tame home prices the rate would have to be very high. Material changes to how we dwell independently would need to evolve. Tiny homes a great just all the labor costs if done one at a time rack up, but a community gets economy of scale.
Subjective data today on ISM Services prices doesn't always show up in PCE or CPI. It may only be in PPI. Holding out for objective data. Upside risk is really a bummer. Rate hike will be a trip to the zoo.
There are more tariffs on the way so the action now is only leading to at least volatility or correction. The asset value of tariffs is twice that of 2018. The Dow hasn't even tested the 200ma. Its close but i assume it trades around that level until spending increases or other news.
Also important to remember in 2018 we were not not running at full employment so onshoring production was not as expensive as today.
still inflation. higher prices will cure it eventually and bond yields must go down. recall that 10% of the US population is sustaining 50% of economic spending currently according to Moody. that model is not sustainable
So everybody buys bonds here and the money supply rises while spurring borrowing for business and homes etc.
how to buy bro?
use tlt for bonds. Yields have a different etf.
Service sector is subjectivly implying increasing prices but some times it has not shown up in CPI or PCE & Service sector has been eating some of the costs. Upside risk is substantial. the 10's are not as risky as the 20's. XTEN is Bloomberg Bond Index fund. XTWY XTWO XFIV etc.
everybody is waiting for inflation here however. It gets more difficult to judge with a pullback in the jobs numbers.
The decrease in government spending should cause slowing by itself. Some farms and manufacturers might layoff employees very quickly here. When the government reduces the deficit it historical greatly increases the likelihood of a recession which I find more likely with audits of government spending which could draw out fraud and subsequent investor trust issues.
bonds crash coming
IRS drafts plans to fire half of its 90,000-person staff. Do ya see it yet?
Holy moly Euro bonds!!! German 10Y +8.5%
4.40 next
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