🤑 It doesn’t get more affordable. Grab this 60% OFF Black Friday offer before it disappears…CLAIM SALE

Greek industry slump, inflation point to deeper recession

Published 04/09/2010, 09:20 AM
Updated 04/09/2010, 09:28 AM

* Industrial output slumps 9.2 percent in Feb

* March inflation jumps to 3.9 percent, from 2.8 percent

* Analysts say 2010 contraction could be worse than forecast

By Harry Papachristou

ATHENS, April 9 (Reuters) - Greek industrial output slumped in February and inflation spiked in March, data showed on Friday, raising further doubts about the government's ability to manage its deficit in a deepening recession.

Greek bonds and banking stocks have taken a beating this week on doubts over Greece's ability to keep financing itself, and the data prompted warnings from economists that a painful economic contraction this year could be worse than expected. Industrial output contracted by 9.2 percent year-on-year in February from a 2.5 percent drop the previous month, Greece's statistics agency said.

March consumer price inflation jumped to 3.9 percent in March from 2.8 percent the previous month, reaching its highest level since November 2008, as fuel prices rose and the government increased taxes to shore up its ailing finances.

These figures were worse than market forecasts and threw doubts on a government target to cut its budget deficit by more than 4 percentage points to 8.7 percent of GDP this year.

"Every day that passes makes me more pessimistic about the feasibility of reaching this target," said Diego Iscaro, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

"We all knew that the recession would be bad, but after today's figures I am wondering if the fall in output isn't going to be worse than the 2.6 percent we currently expect," Iscaro added.

The Greek central bank expects the country's economy to shrink by about 2 percent this year, a forecast some analysts consider optimistic.

Domestic demand in the euro zone state of 11 million may fall by 5 percent this year, said Nikos Magginas, an analyst with National Bank of Greece, the country's biggest lender.

"The first two quarters will probably be the worst we will have seen in terms of growth over the past two decades," Magginas said.

SLUMP ACCELERATES

Greece is going through its first recession since 1993 as consumption and investment suffer from a global slowdown and a home-grown fiscal crisis.Industrial output, which makes up about 15 percent of the country's service-oriented economy, has been contracting since April 2008.

The government insists it will manage the crisis without a European Union and International Monetary Fund safety net agreed last month but with the economy so weak, that may prove impossible as it struggles to shore up its finances and service debt.

The February slump frustrated hopes that industrial output might recover after shrinking by just 2.5 percent in January, the gauge's best performance since August 2008.

"Industrial output had seemed to be having a breathing space but this didn't last at all. Economic activity will be sharply negative from February until at least June," Magginas said.

Manufacturing makes up slightly more than 11 percent of GDP. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Greece fell to an 11-month low of 42.9 in March from 44.2 in February, showing further divergence from recovering and less-indebted euro zone peers.

The country's debt service costs rose by 14.5 percent in the first quarter, finance ministry data showed on Friday, well above the country's 5.1 percent target.

Budget execution data for the first quarter show how much increased debt service costs derail finances. Overall spending fell 3 percent, falling short of the government's plan to cut by a 3.5 percent target over the whole year. (Reporting by Harry Papachristou; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.