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Europe shares cling to gains led by oil; UBS sinks

Published 06/26/2009, 07:46 AM
Updated 06/26/2009, 07:56 AM
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* FTSEurofirst 300 index up 0.4 percent, off morning high

* Oil shares lead advance; pharma sector biggest loser

* Financials mixed; UBS falls 3 percent

By Peter Starck

FRANKFURT, June 26 (Reuters) - European shares held on to minor gains by midday on Friday, retreating from morning highs, with a higher crude oil price supporting energy stocks, while pharma shares fell led by Sanofi-Aventis.

Financials were mixed, with UBS falling after announcing that it would issue shares and post a second-quarter loss while analyst upgrades lifted CS Group.

At 1115 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.4 percent at 849.32 points, having risen as much as 1.3 percent earlier in the session.

The European benchmark, which tumbled 45 percent in 2008, has jumped 32 percent since hitting a lifetime low in early March. It is on track for a weekly loss of around 1.5 percent.

Strategists' outlook views were mixed.

Credit Suisse saw "some signs" of hitherto risk averse investors re-entering the market.

"The mentality has shifted completely to 'buy on dips' from 'sell into strength'," Credit Suisse said.

Deutsche Bank, citing its economists' estimate that German gross domestic product would contract by 6 percent in 2009, said Frankfurt's DAX index could drop more than 15 percent.

"Our strategists see significant downside in equity markets and expect the DAX to fall back to 4,000 (points) in 2009," Deutsche Bank.

"The main reasons for their negative stance: continuing earnings downgrades, disappointment from the real economic development, demanding valuation and capital increases which will absorb a lot of the liquidity."

London-based IG Index said it was difficult to see any extended recovery in UK stocks.

"There is scope for the FTSE to extend the current recovery up above the 4300 mark, but it still looks like the negative sentiment that hit markets over the past couple of weeks could well stifle any run back to the May highs," IG Index said.

Energy stocks added the most points to the FTSEurofirst 300 index by midday, lifted by the oil price rising to $71 a barrel.

StatoilHydro climbed 3.2 percent, Total gained 1.0 percent and ENI was up 1.0 percent.

"The equity rally has run its course for the time being and recovery of the equity markets will likely take the form of a 'W' shape," Evolution Securities said. "Such a recovery pattern would likely imply a short term reversal for the oil price, especially if it is accompanied with a strengthening of the U.S. dollar."

SPOTLIGHT ON UBS

UBS fell 2.9 percent after the Swiss bank unveiled plans to raise $3.5 billion in a share sale and forecast a second-quarter loss.

"The capital increase is not good news, and represents an about 8 percent increase in the number of shares. In very broad terms, we might therefore expect a mid-single-digit EPS (earnings per share) dilution," WestLB said in a note.

CS Group was Europe's top blue-chip gainer, up 4 percent, after UBS raised its price target for the stock. UBS cited its domestic rival's investment banking business, saying it "is gaining market share and is likely to benefit longer than previously expected from increased margins in sales and trading."

After energy, banks added the most points to the benchmark index. The Bank of England said British banks looked in better shape than six months ago but were still vulnerable to economic shocks.

The solvency of French banks was at a "satisfactory" level, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said.

Shares in Sanofi-Aventis fell 6.6 percent, extending the previous day's losses, on continued concerns about the safety of the company's diabetes drug Lantus.

Morgan Stanley cut Sanofi-Aventis to "equal-weight" from "overweight" and JPMorgan to "neutral" from "overweight".

Also in the pharmaceutical sector, shares in Lundbeck fell 2.7 percent on concerns over U.S. prospects for Serdolect, its candidate drug for schizophrenia.

Economic data showed euro zone industrial orders plunging by more than a third year-on-year in April, a record decline led by capital and intermediate goods that pointed to continued contraction of the economy.

"Order intake looks grim ... (and) the Euro Area's Industrial Confidence index covering order intake doesn't promise any improvement in the short term," Steubing said.

The U.S. Commerce Department will release May personal income and consumption data at 1230 GMT and the University of Michigan U.S. June consumer sentiment index is due at 1355 GMT. (Additional reporting by Atul Prakash in London; editing by Karen Foster)

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