(Reuters) - La Nina conditions are present and there is a 59% chance of it persisting through February-April 2025, with a 60% chance of transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2025, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
La Nina, a climate phenomenon marked by cooler-than-usual ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to a mix of extreme weather events, from devastating floods and parching droughts that disrupt global agriculture to heightened hurricane activity across the Caribbean.
CONTEXT
"The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts slightly cooler sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with La Nina persisting through February-April 2025," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.
A transition to ENSO-neutral, a cycle between El Nino and La Nina weather patterns, is likely during March-May 2025, the CPC said, adding that there is a 60% chance of this happening.
El Nino is a natural warming of eastern and central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, while La Nina is characterized by colder temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region.
Recent dry weather linked to the La Nina weather pattern has started to dent soybean and corn crops in Argentina, but rain forecast to arrive in mid-January should bring relief to the core farm region.
KEY QUOTES
"With La Nina conditions not being consistent this winter, there will be more frequent and longer dry periods that could impact the critical crop growing periods," said Tyler Roys, Senior Meteorologist, Lead European Forecaster at AccuWeather.
"The challenges that are going to be faced in the first half of 2025 in the southern Hemisphere is going to be soil moisture levels, especially in South America... If drier conditions spread across more of Brazil during the rest of winter, this is going to impact the winter crop."