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REFILE-FOREX-Dollar sell-off resumes after G20, eyes on Fed

Published 10/25/2010, 04:20 AM
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(Refiles to correct dateline to LONDON)

* G20 vows to refrain from competitive devaluations

* Market awaiting further clues on possible Fed easing

* Aussie gains on takeover news, local data

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped broadly on Monday, hitting a 15-year low versus the yen, as a Group of 20 agreement to shun competitive currency devaluations was taken as a green light to resume dollar selling by investors.

At the meeting in South Korea, G20 finance ministers also struck a surprise deal to give emerging nations a bigger voice in the International Monetary Fund, recognising the quickening shift in economic power away from Western industrial nations.

Analysts said the outcome at G20 pointed to a status quo in currency markets, with the dollar staying under pressure due to market expectations for the Federal Reserve to unveil a second round of quantitative easing as early as November.

"The G-20 was seen as a hurdle by some and now that is over, investors are back to do what they are most comfortable with -- dollar selling," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS.

The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of currencies, dropped 0.9 percent to 76.794 with support seen around its 10-month low of 76.14 in the near term. Dudani expected the dollar index to see some chopiness ahead of the Fed meeting in early November.

The dollar fell 1 percent against the yen to 80.52 yen, falling to its lowest in 15-years. Market players said chances of Japanese yen-selling intervention would increase if the dollar were to drop below 80.00 yen and test its record low of 79.75 yen.

The euro climbed 0.8 percent to $1.4058, having broken resistance at $1.4051. That was a 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's drop to $1.3697 last week from an 8-1/2 month high of $1.4161 hit earlier this month.

With resistance at $1.4051 gone, traders expect $1.4161 peak to be reached soon. But gains above that there were likely to be checked to the presence of some large option barriers.

One trader said real money accounts and trend-following commodity trading advisers were seen buying the euro and the Australian dollar, while another cited buying of the euro and the Australian dollar by Asian accounts.

The Australian dollar surged nearly 1.3 percent to $0.9954, getting an additional boost from news that Singapore Exchange will buy Australian bourse operator ASX.

A surprise jump in Australian producer prices, despite their limited correlation with consumer prices, fanned speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates next month.

FOCUS ON FED

That was in sharp contrast to the U.S. where the Federal Reserve was all set to ease monetary policy further.

While U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated that the United States supports a strong dollar at the G20 meeting, analysts said there were few takers for that.

"By demanding "market determined exchange rates" (at the G20) the U.S is opening the flood gates for a further dollar depreciation due to the ultra-expansionary monetary policy in the U.S," Commerzbank said in a note.

"We therefore expect the dollar to remain under pressure until the next Fed meeting in early November, with retracements being used as selling opportunities."

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the Fed is almost certain to announce renewed monetary easing at next week's policy meeting. They said it may announce $500 billion in asset purchases or a bit more over a period about six months, and the size could eventually reach $2 trillion.

German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle took issue on Saturday with what he called a U.S. policy of increasing liquidity, saying it indirectly manipulated exchange rates.

Such criticism was unlikely to affect the Fed's stance on monetary policy, however, said a trader for a Japanese trust bank. If it did, it would be tantamount to an admission that the Fed's monetary easing stance up to now had been aimed at weakening the dollar, the trader said.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Charlotte Cooper in Tokyo; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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