By Lucinda Elliott
LIMA (Reuters) - World leaders are heading to South America for twin summits this month, with one major theme dominating: Donald Trump 2.0.
Peru is the first stop, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum on Nov. 13-15, followed by a Group of 20 (G20) leading economies meeting in Brazil on Nov. 18-19. A busy month of global summits has also seen the COP29 climate change conference in Azerbaijan.
For leaders from the Asia-Pacific region, APEC on Thursday will be the first time they have gathered since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, which ended in victory for Republican Trump, who has pledged sharp policy shifts on issues ranging from trade tariffs to climate change.
The formal agenda at the forum hosted by resource-rich Peru includes efforts to finance the energy transition, regulate emerging technologies, formalize economies and improve maritime logistics.
But diplomats from the 21-member bloc said Trump's pledge to erect trade barriers for America's partners would overshadow the summit. APEC members, from Canada to Thailand, account for almost half of world trade.
The focus will be "what does Trump 2.0 look like," said a senior diplomat of an APEC member nation, on condition of anonymity. Member nations were concerned about Trump's hardline approach to China, tariffs, and the dollar's rally hitting global currencies, the diplomat said. The U.S. president-elect periodically railed against a rising dollar during his first term, as it hurt the competitiveness of American products abroad.
Leaders will also be trying to calculate how to navigate other new relationships following a blockbuster year of elections in 2024.
There are new leaders of Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and Vietnam, who are all heading to the Peruvian capital.
"A lot of this will be a get-to-know-you for big leaders," said Erin Murphy, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington. "There's going to be less of a focus on the APEC agenda, and more on - how are we going to work together in the new world next year?"
TRADE WAR, CHINA
Trump has proposed import tariffs of 10% across the board on all goods into the U.S., and even higher levies on imports from China. Simmering rivalry between Washington and Beijing has caught many APEC countries in the crossfire in recent years.
Australia, which is looking to diversify trade links across Southeast Asia, says it will support "free and fair" multilateral trade at the summit.
Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden is due to travel to Lima, with Trump's transition team also likely to send representatives.
Biden's impact will be limited, however, given Trump's thumping election win, diplomats said.
Any concessions that Biden made would have a question mark over them when policy could change so "drastically" under Trump, said one senior diplomat in South America.
Hosts Peru want to revive an old APEC plan to establish a free trade area for the entire Asia-Pacific, Foreign Minister Elmer Schialer said, but analysts view that as a long shot without U.S. support.
Delegates said APEC could lay the runway for future announcements on the environment, signaling to negotiators at COP29 and the G20. Trump has already said he plans to withdraw the U.S. from the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, dampening the outlook for climate deals.
Executives from Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), TikTok and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) are scheduled to address delegates alongside leaders from 12 countries, including China's President Xi Jinping.
For President Xi, APEC marks a return to Latin America for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. He will also inaugurate a Chinese-built mega port on the Peruvian coast.
Xi will be on a diplomacy blitz at APEC, several China-based analysts told Reuters, as he seeks to improve or consolidate relations with nations like South Korea and Japan who may be worried about a Trump-led United States.
"This is a good opportunity for Xi to show up, especially when it seems like things in the U.S. might be unstable," Murphy said.