By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) -A last-minute Republican effort to award Nebraska's five Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis - a change that would help Donald Trump's odds of winning the White House - appeared doomed on Monday, after a key Republican lawmaker said he opposed the proposal despite lobbying from Trump's allies.
State Senator Mike McDonnell said in a statement that he would not support altering Nebraska's current system, which splits its electoral votes by congressional district. Democrat Kamala Harris, Trump's opponent in the Nov. 5 election, is slightly favored to win one electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which includes Omaha.
A bill to change the system would require 33 votes out of 49 seats in the legislature. Republicans control exactly 33 seats, which means they cannot afford even a single defection with Democrats united in opposition.
"I will not change my long-held position and will oppose any attempted changes to our electoral college system before the 2024 election," McDonnell said in a statement, noting that the election is only 43 days away.
In an election expected to be among the closest in U.S. history, every electoral vote will count. Unlike many countries, the U.S. president is not elected by the national popular vote; instead, each state awards Electoral College votes in proportion to its population to the winner of that state. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that split their electoral votes.
With seven battleground states likely to determine the election as their voting preferences can swing either to Republicans or Democrats, Nebraska's 2nd district vote looms large. For instance, if Harris won the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump captured the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina - an entirely plausible scenario, based on polling - the Nebraska vote would determine whether Harris won 270-268 or whether the race ended up a 269-269 tie.
If the Electoral College is tied, the U.S. House of Representatives selects the winner, with each state delegation getting a single vote - a scenario that would likely favor Trump.
Trump's allies had pushed Nebraska Republicans to consider changing the electoral system. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican who is close to Trump, met with Nebraska lawmakers last week to discuss the proposal.
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Monday, but in a post on his Truth Social site, Trump called McDonnell a "grandstander" and vowed to win the Omaha-based electoral vote in November.
Trump won all five of Nebraska's electoral votes in 2016, but Democrat Joe Biden took the 2nd district's electoral vote in 2020.
The Harris campaign referred a request for comment to the Nebraska Democratic Party, which did not respond.
McDonnell was elected as a Democrat but switched parties in April after the state Democratic Party censured him for his anti-abortion stances. He said he would encourage lawmakers to put the Electoral College question on the ballot in 2025, allowing voters to decide.
Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen, a Republican, has said he backs the proposed change and would be willing to call a special legislative session if there are clearly 33 votes in favor.