By Tom Balmforth and Alexander Tanas
CHISINAU (Reuters) - Moldovans vote on Sunday in a presidential election and EU referendum at a pivotal moment that could bolster the small agricultural economy's drive to join the European Union, after allegations of Russian election meddling.
As the war in Ukraine rages to the east and turns the political and diplomatic spotlight on the former Soviet republic, it has accelerated its push to escape Moscow's orbit and embarked on the long process of EU accession talks.
Polls show pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu has a comfortable lead over her 10 rivals on the ballot, though the race will go to a Nov. 3 run-off if she fails to reach the 50% threshold to win outright.
Polls show she is likely to face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor-general backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists, if the vote goes to a second round.
Sandu hopes to see a resounding "yes" at the referendum, which will decide whether to insert a clause into the constitution defining EU accession as a goal.
"Our fate is decided on Sunday. Everyone's vote matters, no matter where we are," she wrote on Facebook (NASDAQ:META) on Friday.
Polls show a majority support joining the 27-nation bloc, though five of the candidates have told their supporters to vote "No" or boycott, saying the timing of the referendum is a ruse to boost Sandu's haul at the election.
The referendum needs a turnout of at least a third of the people listed on electoral rolls for it to be deemed valid, even though the lists have not been updated in years despite many people emigrating.
A weak outcome for Sandu would set the tone for next summer's parliamentary elections, where political analysts say her PAS party will face a challenge to retain its majority.
Flanked by Romania and Ukraine, the nation of under 3 million people has alternated between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses since the 1991 Soviet breakup.
Ties with Moscow have deteriorated since Sandu came to power in December 2020. Her government has condemned Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, accused Russia of plotting her overthrow and diversified energy supply after Russia reduced gas supplies.
ALLEGED MEDDLING
The campaign has been overshadowed by election-meddling allegations.
The police have accused Ilan Shor, a fugitive tycoon who lives in Russia, of trying to pay off a network of at least 130,000 voters to vote "No" and back a specific candidate.
Shor, who was jailed in absentia for fraud and theft and is under western sanctions, has openly offered to pay Moldovans to persuade others to vote "No" and back "our candidate". He denies wrongdoing and says the money is his.
In the run-up to the vote, state radio in Chisinau has run adverts telling people not to vote for money and asking them to report any such offers to the authorities.
On Thursday, law-enforcement agencies said they had uncovered a programme in which hundreds of people were taken to Russia to undergo training to stage riots and civil unrest.
Russia denies interfering in Moldova and has long accused its government of "Russophobia".
Police chief Viorel Cernauteanu told Reuters on Saturday there had been a slew of voice and text messages sent from abroad in recent days, telling Moldovans to either boycott the referendum or to vote "No".
He said the police had done everything to prevent any impact on the vote.
"There will be some kind of impact in any case, but I think it will not influence the votes overall."