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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks mixed on investor uncertainty

Published 04/11/2011, 11:21 AM
Updated 04/11/2011, 11:24 AM
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* U.S. earnings start could buoy confidence

* Low volumes underscore foreign investors' nervousness

* Brazil Bovespa up 0.04 pct, Mexico's IPC up 0.65 pct

By Luciana Lopez

SAO PAULO, April 11 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks seesawed early on Monday, with investors cautiously optimistic over the start of the U.S. earnings season, though not yet confident enough to push volume significantly higher.

The MSCI Latin American stocks index <.MILA00000PUS> slipped 0.07 percent early in the session, well within its range of the past few sessions.

But the MSCI's relative strength index, a technical indicator used to gauge momentum, suggested stocks could be overbought after a rally since late March added almost 5.8 percent through Friday.

"The market has a bias that's more positive than negative," said Daniel Marques, an equity analyst with Agora. "The big problem is still volume."

Foreign investors, spooked by rising inflation rates, have turned to the fixed-income market, Marques said. Those inflows have yet to return to stocks with the kind of conviction that would lift Brazilian stocks decisively, he added.

"Until that happens, the market won't really move all that much," Marques said.

Still, U.S. earnings reports for the fourth quarter could help some stocks or even sectors, Marques said.

First-quarter earnings unofficially begin after the bell on Monday with aluminum maker Alcoa . Investors will be alert for companies' trimming their outlooks due to inflation worries. [ID:nN07256466]

Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index <.BVSP> edged up 0.04 percent to 68,751.01 in choppy trading. The index could find support around 68,500, where the 50 percent Fibonacci retracements of both the index's August to November rally and November to February drop are nearly matched.

Among stocks weighing most heavily, preferred shares of energy company Petrobras dropped 0.71 percent.

Shares of mining giant Vale rose 0.34 percent. The stock has been volatile recently as the company defined the succession for outgoing Chief Executive Roger Agnelli. Last week Vale, the world's largest iron ore producer, bid for South African miner Metorex Ltd to tap into its copper and cobalt operations. [ID:nLDE7371CP]

"While the acquisition is economically small, we consider Vale's move to increase its copper exposure to be strategically sensible," Barclays analysts wrote to clients.

Mexico's IPC index <.MXX> rose 0.65 percent, trading back above its 10-day simple moving average after profit-taking last week. The Mexican economy is much more closely tied to that of the United States, so a strong U.S. earnings season could particularly help Mexican equities.

Shares of America Movil , one of the world's biggest telecommunications companies, put on 0.82 percent, leading gains in Mexico City.

Chile's IPSA index <.IPSA> slipped 0.47 percent, dragged down in part by losses in retailers with investments in neighboring Peru after left-wing nationalist Ollanta Humala won the first round of a presidential election there. [ID:nN11271691]

Chilean retailers Cencosud , Falabella and Ripley Co all have major investments in Peru. (Additional reporting by Michael O'Boyle in Mexico City and Felipe Iturrieta in Santiago; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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