WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Early vote returns in U.S. battleground states may not be a good indicator of whether Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican rival Donald Trump will win, experts say, thanks to vote counting rules and quirks in several key states.
In the 2020 election, some states showed a "red mirage," in which Trump was leading on election night, before a "blue shift" saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him as mail-in ballots favored by more Democratic voters were counted.
Experts had accurately predicted it would happen but Trump still used the shift to amplify his false claims that the election was stolen.
It could happen again this week, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The opposite – a “blue mirage” apparently showing a strong result for Harris only for a “red shift” to reverse the trend - could also happen this week, especially in North Carolina and Georgia.
Trump’s campaign team has said he plans to declare victory when his team believes he has crossed the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election. That could be premature, depending on how many votes have yet to be counted and where they come from.
How it all plays out will depend on how and when the large numbers of mail-in or early ballots are processed and counted in the different states.
Another factor is that Democrats tend to live in more populous urban areas, where counting votes takes longer.
There are seven battleground states likely to decide the election, each with its own rules for handling and counting ballots. Here's what to expect on Election Day and beyond:
PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day, as officials sifted through a huge backlog of mail ballots.
The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.
With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, the early results – based on in-person Election Day votes – will probably show Trump ahead, but his lead will likely shrink as more mail ballots are counted.
That pattern in 2020 prompted Trump to falsely claim fraud. This year, a new law requires most counties to announce at midnight on election night how many mail ballots remain to be counted in an effort to forestall conspiracy theories.
WISCONSIN
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin does not allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of the election, which means there can be a delay in reporting the results of those early votes.
In addition, many of the state's largest cities transport mail ballots to a centralized location for processing and tabulating. That can lead to significant batches of votes getting reported all at once in the early morning of Wednesday.
In 2020, Trump and his allies falsely claimed fraud after Milwaukee, the state's largest city, reported nearly 170,000 absentee ballots around 3:30 a.m. CT (0830 GMT), giving Biden a huge spike that moved him into the lead for the first time.
That increase was expected due to the way the city processes those ballots and the fact that Democrats were more likely to vote by mail. A similar pattern is probable in 2024.
GEORGIA
Early in-person voting is popular in Georgia, where officials expected 65% to 70% of ballots to be cast at early poll locations.
Absentee or mail ballots, which may comprise around 5% of the vote, can be processed - which includes steps such as verifying signatures - starting two weeks before the election, though workers must wait until Election Day to begin counting them.
All early votes – in-person and mail – must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET (0000 GMT) on election night, according to state law. Officials are aiming to have all votes, including those from Election Day, tallied by midnight.
Ballots from overseas and military voters will be accepted up to three days after the election if postmarked by Nov. 5.
There were more than 21,000 such ballots requested, so an extremely close election might not be resolved until those votes are tabulated.
ARIZONA
Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona; nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officials in Arizona can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close.
Any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day itself cannot be processed until the polls have closed. That is often a sizable number – in 2022, those "late early" votes comprised one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County, the state's largest – and can take days to count.
The initial results on election night should be mostly early votes, which could favor Harris, before the numbers shift toward Trump as Election Day votes are tallied. They could move back toward Harris in the days to follow as late-arriving mail ballots are tabulated.
MICHIGAN
Since the 2020 election, Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the first time and begun permitting jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days before Election Day.
Smaller jurisdictions can do so the day before Nov. 5.
Officials hope those changes will allow the state to report results more quickly than in 2020, when mail ballots could not be processed in advance.
That created a "red mirage" on election night, when the state's early counts of Election Day votes favored Trump. Biden eventually surpassed Trump on the strength of mail ballots, which took longer to tally. Trump falsely claimed he was the victim of fraud.
NORTH CAROLINA
Election officials start processing and scanning mail ballots ahead of Election Day. After polls close, the first reported results will likely be mostly mail ballots as well as early in-person votes.
Election Day votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with full results expected by midnight.
Harris may appear to lead early thanks to mail ballots, while Trump could close the gap as Election Day votes are counted.
If the election is as close as polls suggest, the outcome in North Carolina may remain unclear for a week or more. Absentee ballots that arrive on Nov. 5, as well as ballots from overseas and military voters, are tallied during the 10-day canvass period that follows Election Day.
In 2020, media outlets did not call North Carolina for Trump until Nov. 13, 10 days after the election.
NEVADA
Nevada's slow vote counting in 2020 – news outlets did not call the state for Biden until five days after Election Day – launched countless memes, but officials say changes since then should speed up the process.
Most notably, counties were permitted to begin processing and counting mail ballots on Oct. 21.
In addition, workers can start tabulating early in-person votes at 8 a.m. PT (1500 GMT) on Election Day, rather than waiting until polls close.
But Nevada still might not get called swiftly. Mail voting has grown popular in the state, and it is the only battleground that accepts late-arriving mail ballots.
Any ballot postmarked by Nov. 5 will still be counted if it arrives within four days. Those late ballots historically favor Democrats, so a shift toward Harris could occur as votes are counted after Election Day.