* For poll data click on
* Japan stocks set to fall 2 percent by end 2010
* Yen, global economy seen to weigh; eyes on Japan politics
By Aiko Hayashi
TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - A stubbornly strong yen and worries about a cooling global economy mean Japanese stocks will likely end 2010 slightly lower than where they are now and down 12 percent on the year, a Reuters poll showed.
The consensus forecast of 18 analysts was for the benchmark Nikkei index to end the year at 9,300, a huge downgrade in expectations compared with a similar poll taken in June, when the consensus was for a rise to 11,250.
The poll was largely taken before Japan intervened in global currency markets for the first time in six years on Wednesday after the yen hit a 15-year high against the dollar.
Many analysts said that with the yen so strong, they expect stocks to fall in the short-term, with some predicting the Nikkei, which has rallied around 3 percent this week, could revisit recent 16-month lows in the next month or so.
"A slowdown in the global economy, led by the United States, will likely become more apparent from now on and stocks around the world look set for a further downtrend," said Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The 9,300 level would be almost 12 percent lower than the Nikkei's end-2009 level of 10,546, and down 2 percent from its 9,509 close on Thursday. That marks a sharp reversal of the 19 percent gain seen in 2009.
The poll also showed analysts expect the Nikkei to claw its way up to 10,350 by the middle of next year.
"The market will likely remain under pressure until next spring. I expect the benchmark to hit a trough in October before companies report their first-half earnings results," said Masahiro Ayukai, senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
POLICY IN FOCUS
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan will keep his job after an unexpectedly strong victory in a ruling party leadership vote on Tuesday but analysts said that ultimately this is not likely to matter much for the Nikkei.
Markets had been braced for a shift toward more aggressive spending if Kan lost to Ichiro Ozawa, a veteran powerbroker who who was also seen as more likely to act to combat the yen's strength.
"The result probably won't be a disappointment to the stock market even though Kan won, as he has emphasised defeating deflation, and dollar/yen moves are also calming down for now," said Masayuki Otani, chief market analyst at Securities Japan, Inc.
Many Japanese companies have assumed a dollar/yen rate of 90 yen and euro/yen of 110-115 yen in the year to March 2011, and the strong yen curbs exporter profits and undermines their competitiveness.
The high-tech sector is one of the worst performers among Japanese stocks this year, down nearly 20 percent, hit by worries about the yen and the possibility of a double-dip recession in the U.S. economy.
(For other stories from the poll click on (Additional polling by the Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)