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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 19 - 23

Published 11/18/2012, 08:12 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, as demand for the safety of the greenback was supported by ongoing concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, as well as worries over the fiscal and economic outlook for the euro zone.

USD/CHF hit 0.9402 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since November 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9451 by close of trade on Friday, 0.32% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9402, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9497, the high of November 9.

Investors continued to remain concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

Congressional leaders said talks with President Barack Obama on Friday to avert the fiscal crisis were "constructive."

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the seven weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

Concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone were underlined after data on Thursday showed that the euro zone economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, tipping the region back into recession, after a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter.

Concerns over Greece also continued to linger amid disagreements between the International Monetary Fund and Europe on how best to reduce Greece’s debt to manageable levels.

A decision on disbursing the country’s next tranche of aid, worth EUR31.5 billion, has been postponed until 20 November.

Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East escalated as Palestinian missiles struck areas around Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on Friday, while Israel extended its bombing of Gaza.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said Friday that the bank would continue to enforce the minimum 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor put in place last year.

Jordan said the value of the Swiss franc remained high and was weighing on the Swiss economy.

In the week ahead market participants will be focusing on developments relating to the U.S. fiscal cliff, as well as Tuesday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, November 19

The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 20

Switzerland is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts.

Wednesday, November 21

The U.S. is to release weekly government reports on initial jobless claims and crude oil inventories. This data is being released one day early ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Thursday, November 22

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.



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