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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 4-8

Published 10/03/2010, 11:28 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the pound decline against the U.S. dollar amid concerns over the outlook for U.K. economic growth, before trimming losses on Friday following downbeat remarks by senior Federal Reserve officials.

GBP/USD hit 1.5658 on Thursday, the pair's lowest since September 24; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5817 by close of trade on Friday, having shed 0.03% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5668, last Thursday's low and resistance at 1.5922, last Thursday's high.

On Tuesday, Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen said Britain needed aggressive economic stimulus to stop it falling into the same kind of slump Japan did in the 1990's. The pound extended its decline on Wednesday after data showed that consumer confidence in the U.K. fell more-than-expected in September.

But the pound trimmed losses on Friday, after senior Federal Reserve officials indicated that the bank would almost certainly have to provide fresh stimulus to the faltering U.S. economy. The remarks overshadowed data showing that manufacturing activity in the U.K. fell to its lowest level in 10-months in September.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is due to release the closely watched ADP report on non-farm employment change ahead of Friday's government data on non-farm payrolls. In addition, the country is to release official data on initial jobless claims, manufacturing activity and pending home sales.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate. Britain is to release a flurry of economic data with reports on inflation, service sector activity, manufacturing production and house prices.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect GBP/USD.

Monday, October 4

The U.S. is to start the week by releasing official data on pending home sales and factory orders, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver a speech at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the U.K. is due to publish a report on activity in its construction sector. Later in the day, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Paul Tucker is due to speak on the country’s economy.

Tuesday, October 5

Both the U.S. and the U.K. are due to release official data on services sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, October 6


The U.S. is to release a report on ADP non-farm employment change. This data is viewed as an accurate prediction of the governments report on non-farm payrolls released two days later. Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, October 7

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims as well as official data on consumer credit and natural gas inventories.

Meanwhile, in the U.K, the Bank of England is due to announce its benchmark interest rate. The country is also due to release official data on manufacturing and industrial production, both leading indicators of economic health.

Friday, October 8

The U.S. is to end the week by producing data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of overall economic health.

Also Friday, the U.K. will conclude the week with the release of key data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth.


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