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Wheat futures rebound after Australia cuts export outlook

Published 12/13/2011, 06:36 AM
Investing.com – Wheat futures regained strength on Tuesday, rising for the first time in five days after Australia lowered its forecast for agricultural-export earnings, easing concerns over increasing competition for U.S. supplies.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat futures for March delivery traded at USD5.9912 a bushel during European morning trade, gaining 0.69%.

It earlier rose by as much as 0.8% to trade at a daily high of USD5.9962 a bushel.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said earlier that it expected earnings from farm, forest and fisheries products to total AUD38.4 billion in the current marketing season, down from a previous forecast of AUD38.6 billion.

The agency citied concerns over public debt levels, which have weakened activity in major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies.

Australia is forecast to become the world’s second largest wheat exporter in the 2011-12 season. A lower export outlook for the Pacific nation could result in increased demand for U.S. supplies, which is the world's third largest wheat producer and biggest exporter of the grain.

Wheat prices found further support amid speculation that last week’s world supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture was too bearish and would be subject to significant revisions in next month’s report. 

The USDA last week increased its world wheat production forecast by 0.8% from its November outlook to a record 689 million tons for the current crop year. Global wheat ending stocks for the 2011-12 season were forecast at 208.52 million metric tons, the highest since the 2001-02 season.

The USDA also cut its forecast for U.S. wheat exports to 925 million bushels, down 5% from November’s estimate.

Mild weakness in the U.S. dollar lent further support, as it boosts the appeal of U.S. crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.22% to trade at 80.06.

Markets were awaiting the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later in the day. The Fed was not expected to take any policy action, although further easing steps are seen as likely next year.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn for March delivery added 0.38% to trade at USD5.9688 a bushel, while soybeans for January delivery edged 0.24% higher to trade at USD11.1488 a bushel.

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