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UPDATE 1-Russia intervenes to limit rouble rise-dealers

Published 09/24/2009, 09:16 AM
Updated 09/24/2009, 09:18 AM
BARC
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* Dealers say c.bank intervening around 36.40 vs basket

* Rouble strongest vs basket since early June

* Barclays Capital recommends longs

(Adds details, background, quotes, closing prices)

By Andrei Ostroukh

MOSCOW, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank intervened in the currency market on Thursday, buying dollars for the first time in more than three months in a bid to stem the appreciation of the rouble, dealers said.

The rouble has been propelled higher by recovering oil prices , signs that the economy is slowly recovering from a recession, abating fears of a second wave of a banking crisis and demand for the currency to pay month-end taxes.

On Wednesday, it strengthened beyond the psychologically key 30 roubles mark against the dollar and put the market on high alert for possible interventions. [ID:nLN459905]

On Thursday, the rouble extended gains to close at 29.94 per dollar, up 6.4 percent this month . Versus a euro-dollar basket, the rouble strengthened to 36.38 for the first time since early June, when the central bank was last seen buying dollars as part of its policy to limit large exchange rate swings in either direction.

"By our estimates, the central bank is taking part in trading somewhere around the 36.40 level (versus the basket)," said Mikhail Azizbayev, dealer at Metallinvestbank.

Several other dealers confirmed the interventions.

The rouble also offers good carry trade opportunities, even though Russia has been cutting interest rates to help revive economic growth. At 10.50 percent, the benchmark refinancing rate still offers favourable returns compared to rates of 1.00 percent or less in other G8 countries [INT/RATE].

After some speculation that this autumn could bring a fresh wave of rouble devaluation, investors have regained confidence in the Russian currency, with Barclays Capital on Thursday recommending rouble longs. [ID:nLO30241]

"The emerging macroeconomic and financial stability in Russia argues for being long once again," they said in a note, recommending a wide stop to the long rouble trade to account for any central bank interventions.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has said Russia will not allow excessive currency appreciation. Too strong a currency could hurt Russia's efforts to build up its manufacturing sector just as the economy is showing signs of emerging from its first recession in a decade.

According to the central bank's policy, it allows the rouble to fluctuate freely within a floating 3 rouble corridor versus the basket. If the currency hits a boundary, Russia spends $700 million on interventions before allowing the corridor at the boundaries to shift by 5 kopecks. [ID:nLE102849]

"The regulator will continue to accumulate their reserves, but I don't think they'll be buying a lot," said Nikolai Podguzov, analyst at Renaissance Capital, estimating Thursday's interventions at around $200 million.

Trading volumes remained average, which suggests the interventions were not large scale.

Podguzov reckons the interventions in the coming days will subside as long as there is no rally in oil prices -- monthly tax payments will end, easing pressure on the rouble. (Additional reporting by Lidia Kelly and Toni Vorobyova, editing by Mike Peacock)

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