By Anna Mehler Paperny
TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian police and migrant aid groups are bracing for an influx of asylum-seekers fleeing President-elect Donald Trump's United States at the same time Canada deals with record numbers of refugee claimants and is trying to bring in fewer immigrants.
The former and now future U.S. president swept to power this week in part on a promise to enact the largest deportation in American history.
Canadian police have been preparing for months, said Royal Canadian Mounted Police Sergeant Charles Poirier on Thursday.
"We knew a few months ago that we had to start prepping a contingency plan because if he comes into power, which now he will in a few months, it could drive illegal migration and irregular migration into (the province of) Quebec and into Canada," he told Reuters.
"Worst-case scenario would be people crossing in large numbers everywhere on the territory. ... Let's say we had 100 people per day entering across the border, then it's going to be hard because our officers will basically have to cover huge distances in order to arrest everyone."
When Trump first came to power in 2017, thousands of asylum-seekers crossed into Canada between formal border crossings to file refugee claims – overwhelmingly at Roxham Road, near the Quebec-New York border.
Roxham Road is no longer an option: Canada and the U.S. expanded a bilateral agreement so that now asylum-seekers trying to cross anywhere along the 4,000-mile border, instead of only at formal crossings, are turned back unless they meet a narrow exemption.
This means people crossing from the U.S. to file claims must sneak across undetected and hide out for two weeks before seeking asylum – a potentially dangerous prospect, immigrant advocates say.
But they add people are already doing it.
"When you don't create legitimate pathways, or when you only create pathways where people have to do the impossible to receive safety, you know, unfortunately, people are going to try to do the impossible," said Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal, which provides services.
And those numbers are expected to increase.
Police are on "high alert," Poirier said, prepared to deploy additional resources to patrol the border. Depending what happens that could mean hundreds more officers. It could also mean more cruisers, chartering buses, building trailers and renting land.
"All eyes are on the border right now. ... We were on high alert, I can tell you, a few days before the election, and we'll probably remain on alert for the next coming weeks."
RECORD CLAIMS
Canada is already dealing with record numbers of refugee claimants: In July, almost 20,000 people filed refugee claims, according to Immigration and Refugee Board data – the highest monthly total on record and driven by global displacement, advocates and experts told Reuters.
The number has since dipped, to about 16,400 in September, but remains historically high. There are more than 250,000 claims pending, according to the board.
Canada's government has slashed the number of permanent and temporary immigrants but has less control over how many people claim asylum.
Toronto's FCJ Refugee Centre already serves dozens of new asylum-seekers a week, its founder Loly Rico told Reuters.
Trump's election is "going to impact Canada," she said. "We will start seeing more people crossing the border, appearing in cities and looking for support."
She worries about what will happen in the winter. In 2022, a family of four froze to death trying to cross the border near Emerson (NYSE:EMR), Manitoba.
"It's going to be a challenge for any refugee in the United States to feel that they belong, and that's why they will start looking what other countries can start giving them protection."
Canada's attempts to tighten its borders have been a boon to smugglers: People used to pay for help getting to the United States and make their way to Canada on their own, Rico said; now they pay extra to come to Canada overland or by air.
Daoud added that ahead of a likely influx, now is the time for Canada to invest in its asylum infrastructure to better support and process people who make refugee claims there.
"Unfortunately, until the government policy shifts in how they look at this particular issue, there's going to be more of the same. We're not going to be prepared, and it’s going to be politicized all over again."
Immigration Minister Marc Miller has said his government has a plan for an asylum-seeker influx but would not give details.
Canada's immigration department "will continue to prepare and anticipate all possible scenarios, any approach taken will be first and foremost in the best interest of Canada and all those who live here," Miller's office wrote in a statement.