BANGALORE, July 7 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas made the most accurate one-month forecasts for dollar rates against major currencies in the June Reuters foreign exchange poll, scoring best on their predictions for the yen.
They forecast the dollar to end the month at 88 yen, nearly spot on the actual close of 88.39. BNP forecast sterling to end June at $1.470 and the euro at $1.220, compared with actual closes of $1.495 and $1.2234.
This scored BNP a total of 139 points out of a maximum possible score of 150. They were followed by Julius Baer and RBC, which tied for second place with scores of 126.
The yen, which surged to a 2010 high against the dollar of 86.94 on July 1, proved to be the hardest to predict, ending last month 3 percent stronger at 88.39.
BNP was one of the very few strategists who got that call nearly right. Only three others among 56 top FX dealers saw the dollar below 90 yen at the end of June.
"With the current high levels of risk aversion, we're seeing the Japanese investors slowing their outflows," said Ian Stannard at BNP Paribas, who expects dollar/yen to stay below 90 in the next six months and surge to 101 by mid next year.
"In the near-term we'd be looking for yen to keep the pressure on the downside, maybe even dipping slightly lower towards the 85 area," Stannard added.
He foresees a more sustained recovery developing towards the end of this year and beginning of next year.
Last month's poll also showed the euro weakening over a twelve-month horizon. The outlook was uncertain, however, given the wide range of forecasts, which ranged from parity to $1.60.
The 16-nation bloc's currency tumbled to a four-year low in early June at $1.1875. Just three of 56 strategists polled last month saw the euro at or below $1.18 on a one-month horizon.
Weaker housing data in the U.S., still-high unemployment and signs of a slowing global economy re-fuelled worries about a double-dip recession and sent stock markets tumbling.
Investors channelled money into safe havens like U.S. government bonds and the Japanese yen.
The monthly poll asks analysts and currency strategists for one-, three-, six-, and 12-month forecasts for dollar exchange rates against sterling, the euro and yen.
Full June rankings can be accessed by double-clicking on.
Following are the top contributors, their one-month predictions and total scores against closing prices on June 30. ----------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL RANK BANK CITY STERLING/DLR EUR/DLR DLR/YEN SCORE ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1 BNP Paribas London 1.470 1.220 88.0 139 2= Julius Baer Frankfurt 1.452 1.220 90.0 126 2= RBC London 1.470 1.230 89.0 126 4 UniCredit MIB Milan 1.465 1.225 91.0 123 5 Mizuho CB London 1.460 1.220 90.5 121 6 RZB Vienna 1.460 1.220 91.0 119 7 BCV Group Zurich 1.500 1.250 88.0 113 8 Saxo Bank Copenhagen 1.460 1.220 92.0 111 9 Goldman Sachs London 1.470 1.230 91.2 108 10 Societe Generale Paris 1.450 1.220 92.0 106 11 AIB Dublin 1.450 1.200 90.0 103 12= BMO Cap Mkts Toronto 1.450 1.230 92.0 96 12= Landesbank Berlin 1.450 1.230 92.0 96 14 Aurel BGC Paris 1.500 1.270 90.0 95 15 BTMU London 1.450 1.240 91.0 94 16= AMP Sydney 1.450 1.250 90.0 91 16= Banco BPI Lisbon 1.458 1.210 92.0 91 16= ZKB Zurich 1.447 1.226 91.5 91 19 IFR Markets London 1.500 1.200 92.5 89 20 Deutsche Bank London 1.500 1.260 91.0 88 --------------------------------------------------------------- (FOR OTHER STORIES FROM THE POLL CLICK ON (FOR DETAILS OF REUTERS FX POLLS CLICK ON)) (Writing by Khushboo Mittal; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)