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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 15-19

Published 03/14/2010, 10:53 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the euro rise to a 1-month high against the U.S. dollar, as investors' risk appetite sharpened in the wake of upbeat data from the euro zone and United States, and as fears over debt-laden Greece abated.

EUR/USD rose to 1.3796 during European morning trade on Friday, its highest rate since Feb. 11; the pair subsequently consolidated around 1.3768, gaining 0.64%.

The pair is likely to find resistance at 1.4026, the high of Feb. 3, and support at 1.3434, the low of March 2 and a 9-month low.

Reports that euro zone nations are close to agreeing on a bailout package for Greece are likely to whet risk appetite further next week. Official confirmation of such a deal may come after finance ministers from the 16-nation region meet on Monday to discuss financial aid for the country.

A number of other key economic events are set to occur next week in Europe: the release of the German Zew Economic Sentiment index, the publication of the euro zone's current account and a speech by the European Central Bank President, Jean-Claude Trichet.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is due to announce its key decision on interest rates. The United States is also scheduled to release important data on the housing market, long-term securities, inflation and the manufacturing sector.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 15

The European Union will release quarterly data on unemployment in the euro zone, an indicator of the region's overall economic health.

The U.S. Treasury Department will then release its TIC Long-Term Purchases report, which measures the difference in value between foreign holdings of U.S. securities and U.S. holdings of foreign securities.

Also Monday, the U.S. will publish monthly data on industrial production.

Tuesday, March 16

The ZEW economic research institute will release its key German Economic Sentiment index, an indicator of the health of the euro zone's largest economy. ZEW will also release a similar index for the entire 16-nation region.

The EU will later publish an annual consumer price index for the 16-nation region. France, the euro zone's second biggest economy, will publish monthly CPI data.

The U.S. will then release data on the number of new residential building permits issued and buildings upon which construction was begun during the previous month.

Later Tuesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which will be accompanied by the release of a statement from the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee.

Wednesday, March 17

Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber, a voting member of the ECB, is set to speak at a conference in Bonn.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. will publish its monthly producer price index, a key indicator of inflation, and a weekly report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, March 18

The EU will release monthly data on its current account, the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers.

In addition, the EU will publish a monthly report on its trade balance, which is limited to the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. Italy will also publish a report on its trade balance.

The U.S. will then publish key monthly CPI data and weekly data on initial jobless claims. Later Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will release its manufacturing index, a closely watched measure of manufacturers' views regarding the outlook for their sector.

Friday, March 19

Germany will release its monthly PPI, after which Trichet will address a conference in Brussels. Investors will scrutinize the European Central Bank chief's remarks for during possible clues regarding future monetary policy.

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