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The calm that precedes the hurricane!!

Published 10/08/2010, 05:38 AM
Updated 10/08/2010, 06:24 AM

Movements are bearish in the FOREX market as investors are wary of taking any positions before the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls later in the day that is expected to cause volatile and heavy movements.

Meanwhile, there are uncertainties surrounding the global recovery with slowdown seen in global economies which gave strength to safe havens in the past period.

Despite that the US jobless claims fell to a near three-month low yesterday, there are growing concerns that the Feds will follow the BoJ suit by pumping more money to bolster the economy.

Today's report is expected to show that private payrolls are expected to climb to 75,000 from 67,000, while unemployment will incline to 9.7% from 9.6%.

The grim data released recently affected the dollar sharply causing it to decline to below eight-month low against a basket of major currencies and 15-year low versus the yen.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the green currency versus six major currencies, fell to a low of 77.36 after breaching support at 77.60.

Concerning the euro-dollar pair, it declined slightly to touch a low of 1.3889 but strong support at 1.3890 pushed the pair higher at 1.3905 while it opened at1.3924.

A German report released earlier today showed that trade surplus narrowed in August due to the decline in exports which pushed the euro an inch to the downside.

The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.3800 and the major resistance at 1.4100.

Moving to the sterling-dollar pair, it was little changed as it is currently trading near the opening areas. The sterling fell yesterday after facing psychological resistance at 1.6000 which pushed the pair down to 1.5870 where it currently hovers.

Today's data showed that PPI exceeded estimates in September which may raise concerns that annual CPI may remain above the 3% upper limit for a while.

Also, NIESR said it expects UK economy to face a slowdown in growth to 0.5% in the third quarter from 1.2% in the three months ending June.     

So far the royal pair has recorded a high of 1.5898 and a low of 1.5821, whereas the trading range for today is among the major support at 1.5775 and the major resistance at 1.6070.

With regard to the dollar-yen pair, it continued its downside trend falling to a low of 82.14 amid speculations the BoJ will not intervene in markets before the G7 meeting later on today where leaders criticized interventions in currency markets.

The fall below 82.85, the support that helped the pair to rise on September 15 after the BoJ intervention, paved the way for further decline.

However, momentum indicators which are showing that the pair is currently oversold is giving clues that we might see an upside correction.

Currently, the pair is trading at 82.33 after touching a high of 82.50, where the trading range for today is among the major support at 81.60 and the major resistance at 84.40.

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