As speculation swirls around Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s possible endorsement of Donald Trump, analysts at Wolfe Research have begun to explore what role RFK Jr. might play in a potential second Trump administration.
Reports suggest that Kennedy may drop out of the presidential race and endorse Trump in exchange for a senior position, a move that could have implications for both the electoral landscape and policy decisions in 2025.
Wolfe Research points out that while Kennedy's endorsement would likely benefit Trump, the impact may be "modest."
"As time has passed, it has become increasingly clear that RFK is drawing votes disproportionately from Trump," wrote the firm.
However, Wolfe Research cautions that this effect is "already baked into much of the polling," and the overall impact on the race might only be marginal.
The real question, according to Wolfe Research, is what role RFK Jr. might be offered in a Trump administration.
Kennedy has expressed interest in issues such as public health, environmental protection, and government transparency.
Wolfe Research highlights several potential roles for him, including Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator, or a White House "czar" overseeing specific issues like chronic disease or corporate influence.
However, the report also notes significant obstacles. Kennedy might face challenges in securing Senate confirmation for roles like HHS Secretary or FDA Administrator due to his controversial positions and the GOP's hesitancy to place him in a role that could disrupt industry operations.
Wolfe Research suggests that a White House position, which wouldn't require Senate approval, could be the "cleanest solution."
Ultimately, Wolfe Research concludes that while RFK Jr. might create some headline risk for industries like pharmaceuticals and agriculture, his potential role in a Trump administration is unlikely to pose significant policy risks for markets.