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VW supports Qatar buying stake; shares gain

Published 06/08/2009, 07:32 AM
Updated 06/08/2009, 07:58 AM
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* Would back purchase of stake in itself or in Porsche

* VW ordinary shares gain 4.2 percent, Porsche 0.1 percent

HAMBURG, June 8 (Reuters) - Volkswagen would support the Gulf emirate of Qatar taking a substantial voting stake in either its debt-laden parent Porsche or in VW itself, Europe's largest carmaker said on Monday.

"In principle we view this positively since it would accelerate the process to form an integrated group with 10 brands," a VW spokesman said, using phrasing approved by both companies.

They are considering merging after Porsche dropped attempts to take full control of VW.

VW's chairman, Ferdinand Piech, is locked in a struggle for control with his cousin Wolfgang Porsche, who chairs the holding company that owns Porsche's sports car business and 51 percent of VW's ordinary shares.

Focus magazine reported that Qatar was considering either taking a stake in the listed Porsche Automobil Holding via a capital increase, or in VW directly by buying VW voting stock held by Porsche's derivative trading partners.

VW ordinary shares rallied on Monday on speculation that Qatar could eliminate a stock overhang by scooping up the more than 20 percent of VW voting shares owned by Porsche's counterparties to hedge their exposure on derivative contracts.

Porsche's 9 billion euro net debt pile as well as the risk of significant accounting writedowns on its VW stake should its counterparties flood the market with their shares have reduced its negotiating leverage with VW.

As part of efforts to bolster its balance sheet, the sportscar maker has sought 1.75 billion euros in loans from German state-owned development bank KfW. A decision is expected by June 23.

Analysts at Sal Oppenheim estimate Porsche could face a cash loss of about 3.5 billion euros should Qatar buy VW ordinaries at an average price of 80 euros per share, roughly 50 euros below its estimate for the strike price of the put options that Porsche wrote.

"Finding an investor would certainly help Porsche to avoid more critical liquidity issues. However, it is hard to see how it could generate upside for the share price," they wrote.

The bank said it believes Porsche's share price already reflects the assumption that it would find a buyer for 25 percent of VW at the strike price of its put options and that Porsche will get out of the deal relatively unharmed.

"We think that is highly unlikely and reiterate our negative stance on the stock," it wrote, sticking to its "sell" rating and 20 euro fair value.

Porsche shares edged up 0.1 percent to 47.02 euros while VW ordinaries gained 4.2 percent to 251.22 euros by 1103 GMT. VW's preferred stock slipped 0.3 percent to 53.52 euros while the European autos sector index fell 1 percent.

(Reporting by Christiaan Hetzner; editing by John Stonestreet)

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