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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 28 - March 04

Published 02/27/2011, 09:18 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar rebound from a four day low to close higher against its U.S. counterpart, as rising oil prices weakened the greenback against the backdrop of worsening violence in Libya.

AUD/USD hit 0.9966 on Tuesday, the pair's lowest since February 16; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0173 by close of trade on Friday, climbing 0.37% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0000, last Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0201, the high of January 3.

Crude oil for April delivery in New York climbed to its highest level since September 2008 on Thursday, topping USD103 a barrel. The spike in oil prices saw the greenback weaken broadly amid concerns that the inflationary impact could hit U.S. consumer spending and weigh on the rate of global economic growth.

The Aussie was also boosted after official data indicated that the scope of the country's resources and mining boom was expected to continue to expand.

A report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicated a planned 32% increase in business investment in the year ending June 30, 2012 from a year earlier.

The report said that expansion plans among miners were the most aggressive, with economists expecting AUD100 billion to be invested in 2011-12. This would be around 95% more than in the preceding year.

Meanwhile, the greenback remained under pressure after revised data on Friday showed that fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product came in weaker-than-expected. The Commerce Department said GDP rose at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.8%, less than the expected 3.3% gain.

In the week ahead, any further escalation of geopolitical tensions in North Africa and the Middle East could continue to drive oil prices higher while U.S. jobs data for February, due Friday, will also be a major focus for markets. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its cash rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 28


The U.S. is to  kick off the week by releasing a flurry of data, with industry data on pending home sales as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the in the Chicago area. The U.S. is also to publish official data on personal consumption expenditure and consumer price inflation.

Elsewhere, Australian is to release official data on private sector credit.

Tuesday, March 1

In the U.S., the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, is to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington. His comments will be closely scrutinized for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management is to publish a report on manufacturing activity.

Australia is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as a report on the country’s current account. The country is also to publish government data on commodity prices as commodities account for over half of the country’s export earnings.

Later in the day, the RBA is to announce its cash rate. The announcement will be accompanied by the banks rate statement, which contains commentary about the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. It also discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

Wednesday, March 2

Australian is to publish official data on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health, while later in the day the country is to publish industry data on services sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., Ben Bernanke is to testify for a second day before the Senate Banking Committee. Meanwhile, the Fed is to publish its Beige Book, which contains data policymakers examined before making their interest rate decision.

The country is also to publish data on private sector payrolls compiled by payroll processing firm ADP, which heads up government data by two days, as well as a report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 3

The U.S. is to release its key weekly report on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country is also to publish revised data on nonfarm productivity, as well as a report on service sector activity, while Fed chair Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement.

Elsewhere, Australia is to publish official data on building approvals, a leading gauge of future construction activity. The country is also to publish data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports over the month.

Friday, March 4


The U.S. is to round up the week with a closely watched report on non-farm payrolls, a leading indicator of job creation. The country is also to publish government data on the rate of unemployment, average hourly earnings as well as factory orders.

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