In a note Thursday, analysts at HSBC upgraded UPS (UPS) to Buy from Hold, raising the price target to $170 from $150 per share.
UPS's first-quarter results beat expectations due to a tapering volume decline and an improving costs base. The company also reiterated full-year guidance, implying that 1Q was a trough quarter for UPS, according to HSBC.
The bank sees UPS's volumes and margins turning around from the second quarter, with the potential for a 2024 guidance upgrade to reflect an accretive USPS contract.
Furthermore, it is felt that this could restore confidence in UPS's 2026 guidance.
"For 2026, our forecast is 9% below the company's organic adj. OP target while consensus is 10% lower," said HSBC. "Recall that UPS did not meet its 2023 targets outlined in 2021. However, with the margin recovery and an uplift from the USPS contract, confidence in UPS's 2026 guidance may improve."
Overall, HSBC lifted its rating and target for UPS based on a higher multiple to reflect margin expansion and rollover to 2024 to 2025e EPS. They now see the focus shifting to EBIT recovery from the second half after seven quarters of year-on-year declines and the potential 2024 guidance upgrade on the USPS contract win.