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UPDATE 1-Weak French jobs outlook poses threat to Sarkozy

Published 04/05/2011, 08:04 AM
Updated 04/05/2011, 08:08 AM
BNPP
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* France seen creating 110,000 jobs in 2011, less than 2010

* Economic growth seen falling short of government forecasts

* Weak jobs outlook sensitive ahead of 2012 elections

(Adds detail, background, analyst comment)

PARIS, April 5 (Reuters) - Job creation in France will slow in 2011 as economic growth falls short of official targets, the state jobs agency said on Tuesday, presenting an unwelcome scenario for President Nicolas Sarkozy ahead of 2012 elections.

Forecasts published by Pole Emploi showed the economy will grow 1.7 percent this year, less than the government's forecast for 2.0 percent, creating 110,000 new jobs compared with a total of 120,000 the previous year.

Net unemployment will fall by 55,000, the agency said, after increasing by 77,000 in 2010, but this will do little to reverse the effects of the economic crisis which added close to 500,000 people to the jobless queues in 2009 and 2010.

For 2012, Pole Emploi said it expected the labour market to gather momentum, creating 134,000 new jobs over the year, but gross domestic product would again miss expectations, rising 1.8 percent compared with an official forecast of 2.5 percent.

"It's clear the unemployment rate is only going to improve very slowly. It's no surprise, but it's not good news for the government," said Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas.

President Sarkozy is widely expected to run for re-election in April 2012, but his popularity levels remain stuck at dire levels and recent polls have suggested he could be knocked out in the first round of the presidential race.

Parliamentary elections take place in the weeks following the presidential contest.

Fears over high unemployment, rising inflation and strict fiscal tightening measures have left many voters disillusioned with economic policy and hungry for signs the government is doing something to tackle their concerns.

Voters expressed their discontent with a poor turnout for local elections last weekend where Sarkozy's ruling UMP party lost to the Socialist Party and met intensified competition from the far-right National Front.

Unemployment is stuck at around 9.6 percent.

Total jobless figures fell a meagre 0.7 percent in January and 0.1 percent in February, and March PMI data on Tuesday showed services firms reining in hiring plans.

In addition, recent reforms pushing back the minimum legal age of retirement -- to 62 over time from 60 now -- will only make it harder to soak up the pool of people left unemployed and under-employed by the economic crisis. (Reporting by Marc Angrand; writing by Vicky Buffery; editing by Patrick Graham/Ruth Pitchford)

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