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REFILE-UPDATE 1-SAIC Q4 net up 58 pct on record sales, outlook cautious

Published 03/30/2011, 06:42 AM
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* Q4 net profit 4.15 bln yuan vs 3.68 bln yuan consensus

* Analysts cautious on 2011 outlook amid market slowdown

* Shares outperform market before Feb trading suspension

* Company striving for global brand name (Adds details, analyst comment, share price)

BEIJING, March 30 (Reuters) - China's largest automaker, SAIC Motor Corp , said on Wednesday its fourth-quarter earnings rose 58.4 percent as sales in the world's largest auto market jumped ahead of the expiry of government incentives.

SAIC and its partners, General Motors and Volkswagen , all reported record sales in 2010, extending the momentum from 2009 when China's auto sales exceeded the annual tally of the United States for the first time ever.

Analysts, however, are cautious about SAIC's earnings outlook this year because Beijing scrapped most of its policy incentives at the end of 2010, a move expected to end two consecutive years of frenetic expansion of the market.

"I thinks SAIC will still grow as fast as the market this year in terms of unit sales, but it's unlikely to match the usually strong earnings growth of 2010," Cao He, an analyst with Minzu Securities, said ahead of SAIC's earnings report.

In an emailed statement, SAIC said it aimed to sell more that 4 million vehicles this year, equivalent to an 11 percent year-on-year increase at least.

China has been a major bright spot amid a global industry still recovering from a deep downturn thanks in part to Beijing's tax incentives for small cars. Now that those perks are no longer available, market growth is expected to slow to 10-15 percent in 2011, down from the 32 percent gain in 2010, industry observers say.

A recent move by the city government of Beijing to impose quotas on new car registrations and possible similar moves by other big cities to tackle traffic gridlock will also slow the market.

From October to December, SAIC's net profit came to 4.15 billion yuan, beating a consensus forecast of 3.68 of billion yuan from three analysts polled by Reuters.

For the full year of 2010, its earnings jumped 108.3 percent to 13.7 billion yuan. Its vehicle sales for the year increased 31.5 percent to 3.6 million units, beating its target of 3 million units. Its closest domestic rival, Dongfeng Motor Group , sold about 1.6 million fewer units, company data showed. [ID:nTOE70B06A]

Smaller rival Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd , whose parent took over Volvo from Ford Motor , posted a 4 percent drop in second-half earnings on higher operating costs and warned about significant challenges in 2011. [ID:nL3E7EL0CW]

Warren Buffett-backed BYD saw its fourth quarter net income fell 94 percent as competition squeezed its margins. [ID:nTOE72905H]

SAIC shares had suspended trading since Feb. 2, pending an announcement of a restructuring move. They had risen about 26 percent so far this year since they last traded, outpacing the Shanghai Composite Index , which gained 5.3 percent during the same period.

MG, ROEWE

SAIC is among a growing band of Chinese firms, including Geely Automobile and Chery Automobile, which are attempting to build global brands.

SAIC became the owner of MG Rover's 10,000-unit Longbridge plant in Birmingham in central England after a merger with its much smaller rival, Nanjing Automobile Group, in late 2007.

Its Roewe and MG models, which are based on acquired technologies, are popular among the Chinese professional elite, making it virtually the only indigenous brand that has made some inroads into the lucrative mid-to-high end segment still dominated by foreign brands.

SAIC had said that it would make and sell its MG 6 sedan in the U.K. in the first quarter of 2011 as it moves to revive the famed British marque. [ID:nTOE6BJ06M]

The journey to global recognition would be less arduous for the Chinese automaker if it could gain access to its long-time partner GM's network in the UK, analysts say.

(Reporting by Fang Yan and Ken Wills; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jacqueline Wong)

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