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UK services growth slows as expected in Nov-Markit CIPS

Published 12/03/2010, 04:30 AM
Updated 12/03/2010, 04:32 AM

By Kate Holton

LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The rate of growth in the British service sector slipped back slightly in November but remained near October's four-month high as new business picked up at its fastest rate since June, a survey showed on Friday.

The headline business activity index in the Markit/CIPS PMI index eased to 53.0 in November from October's four-month high of 53.2 and bang in line with the forecast.

The new business index rose to 52.4 from 52.0 in October, the highest reading since June, and business confidence also improved. However, employment fell at a faster rate than October and firms also ran down backlogs of work, suggesting a build up of spare capacity.

The figures are therefore unlikely to alter expectations that the Bank of England will keep policy loose as it waits to see how planned government spending cuts hit demand.

The headline activity index has been above the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion for more than a year- and-a-half but November's pace of growth was again below the survey average.

Markit economist Paul Smith said the growth in the UK service sector activity was solid but described the rise in new work as still lacklustre as economic uncertainties undermined business and consumer spending.

"With the survey's data on backlogs and confidence pointing to sluggish expansion in the near-term, we expect the sector to make a reduced contribution to UK economic growth in Q4," he said.

"Moreover, the sector's present growth profile suggests it is unlikely to generate any meaningful job creation and help to offset expected employment cuts in the public sector."

RISING LAYOFFS

Employment in the sector declined at a slightly faster rate than in October as a number of respondents chose not to replace leavers or to implement redundancies.

Markit said business expectations had improved since October although the degree of business confidence in the UK service sector remained historically low due to fears over government spending cuts.

And inflation pressures eased last month, with firms raising prices at a slower pace than in October, in line with a slight slowdown in their own costs.

Overall, Friday's survey suggests the services sector is not expanding as quickly as the manufacturing sector, where activity picked up at its fastest pace in 16-years in November.

Analysts reckon overall GDP growth will slow sharply in the final three months of this year from the surprisingly robust 0.8 percent expansion recorded in the third quarter. Reuters poll consensus: 53.0 (range 52.7-54.3, 22 participants) (Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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