🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Slowdown and cooling prices could ease rate hike pressure on BoE - PMI

Published 07/22/2022, 06:05 AM
Updated 07/22/2022, 06:11 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People walk through the Canary Wharf financial district of London, Britain, December 7, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson
SPGI
-

By William Schomberg

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's businesses grew at their slowest pace in 17 months in July and inflation pressures eased, according to an industry survey that might reduce pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a bigger-than-usual interest rate hike next month.

The preliminary version of the S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)'s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), covering services and manufacturing firms, fell to 52.8 - the lowest since February 2021 - from June's 53.7.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market, said the reading was consistent with quarterly economic growth of 0.2% and there were signs from order books that the slowdown would worsen.

"The concern is that rising interest rates, as the Bank of England seeks to control inflation, will cause demand growth to weaken further in the coming months," Williamson said.

"To be hiking interest rates at a time of such weak business growth is unprecedented over the past quarter-century of survey history."

The central bank has said it is ready to raise interest rates by a bigger-than-usual half-percentage point if it sees signs of persistent inflation pressures.

Its next scheduled rates announcement is on Aug. 4.

Data from Refinitiv showed that investors had pared back their bets on a 50 basis-point rate hike by the BoE to around 68% from almost 100% earlier this week.

While the PMI suggested a slowdown in growth in Britain, parallel surveys for other European economies showed a contraction.

Other data on Britain's economy published on Friday showed consumers cut back on their shopping in June and consumer confidence remained at an all-time low.

The contenders to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister are split on how to revive the economy, with tax cuts the main dividing line in the campaign so far.

The PMI survey showed output among factories contracted for the first time since May 2020 but travel and leisure firms saw stronger new orders.

The slowdown was mostly due to weaker demand but continued shortages of supplies and staff also put a break on growth.

Input cost inflation fell to a 10-month low - or an 18-month low for manufacturers - welcome news for the BoE.

The fall was due to weaker commodity prices and a stabilisation in fuel costs although many firms reported intense salary pressures and some said the pound's fall against the U.S. dollar was also hurting them.

Prices charged by firms rose at the slowest pace since January as demand from clients softened.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People walk through the Canary Wharf financial district of London, Britain, December 7, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson

Companies remained cautious about the outlook although their mood improved from June's 25-month low, driven by service firms.

Employment rose at the slowest pace in 16 months.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.