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Natural gas futures plunge on mild weather forecasts

Published 11/01/2011, 11:50 AM
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Investing.com – Natural gas futures plunged to a three-day low on Tuesday, as traders focused on forecasts calling for mild weather across most parts of the U.S. through mid-November, reducing heating demand expectations for the fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for December delivery traded at USD3.779 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, plunging 3.94%. 

It earlier fell by as much as 4.35% to trade at USD3.761 per million British thermal units, the lowest price since October 27.

The Commodity Weather Group said earlier that the U.S. East Coast may be warmer than normal through mid-November, with temperatures expected to be about three degrees Fahrenheit (1.6 Celsius) higher-than-average from November 6 through November 10.

According to the weather group’s 11-to-15 day forecast, temperatures in the Northeast could rise to as much as five degrees warmer from November 11 to November 15.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts for late October and early November on heating demand.

Markets were looking forward to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on U.S. natural gas stockpiles for the week ended October 28 on Thursday.

Early injection estimates range from 59 billion cubic feet to 87 billion cubic feet. The five-year average stockpile change for the week is an increase of 35 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data. Supplies climbed by 67 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier.

Over the past five weeks, more than 500 billion cubic feet of natural gas has been added to storage, bringing levels close to the multi-year highs reached last year.

U.S. inventories typically increase during the so-called "shoulder season", the period in autumn after air-conditioning demand falls but before heating begins.

But this year's increase, aided by unusually warm temperatures, offers a much larger cushion than in most years as winter approaches.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in December tumbled 3.06% to trade at USD90.33 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery dropped 2.43% to trade at USD2.983 per gallon.

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