🤑 It doesn’t get more affordable. Grab this 60% OFF Black Friday offer before it disappears…CLAIM SALE

FOREX-Euro up on data; risks from stress tests

Published 07/23/2010, 06:20 AM
Updated 07/23/2010, 06:24 AM
EUR/USD
-

* German Ifo beats expectations, boosts euro

* Euro at risk if larger banks fail stress tests

* Benign result could also weigh on currency

(Adds detail, updates prices)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - Another strong data release boosted the euro on Friday when the German Ifo index came in above forecasts, but analysts said there were downside risks for the currency, even if bank stress test results were benign.

Ifo said the German Business Climate Index for July was 106.2, beating a consensus for 101.6 and pushing the euro to a session high versus the dollar of $1.2967.

Strong euro zone purchasing manager surveys helped push the euro up more than 1 percent on Thursday.

The euro had hit the day's low of $1.2861 on Friday after Spanish newspaper El Pais reported that several of the country's 18 savings banks had failed the stress tests.

But losses on the report were contained as many investors awaited the official results at about 1600 GMT.

"The market's assumption is that several of the Spanish cajas will fail, along with some peripheral European banks. But if it goes beyond that the euro reaction will be negative," said Adam Cole, head of global FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Traders said movements ahead of the test results were likely to be well contained, with orderboards showing good interest to buy any dip towards $1.2820. Asian sovereign sales were said to be slowing the euro's gains.

At 0943 GMT, the euro was up around 0.4 percent at $1.2939. Market players said there were downside risks for the single currency, even if the test results were perceived to be benign.

"We see an asymmetric downside risk for EUR/USD as the results are published," analysts at Citigroup said in a note to clients.

"This reflects an almost no-win situation: either the test results condemn a sufficiently large number of banks or they will be deemed inadequate by the market."

Euro/dollar 1-month risk reversals, a measure of currency sentiment, showed a bias for euro downside. Traders said that partly reflected speculation the euro may start falling some time after the test results.

The euro was up 0.6 percent versus the yen at 112.70 yen, having risen about 0.9 percent on Thursday. It fell to the day's low of 111.73 after the Spanish newspaper report.

The dollar was up slightly versus the yen at 87.09 yen, staying above a seven-month trough of 86.27 yen struck on trading platform EBS late last week.

The greenback was down 0.3 percent versus a currency basket at 82.344.

Sterling rose over 1 percent on the day to trade above $1.5400, boosted by data showing Britain's economy grew almost twice as fast as expected in the second quarter of this year.

(Graphic by Scott Barber; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.