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FOREX-Yen dips on BOJ speculation, dlr subdued before data

Published 03/11/2010, 09:45 PM
Updated 03/11/2010, 09:48 PM

* Yen slips on expectations BOJ may ease policy next week

* Dlr subdued as investors focus turns to U.S. retail sales

* Swiss franc wary of SNB intervention

By Rika Otsuka

TOKYO, March 12 (Reuters) - The yen dipped on Friday, dented by speculation that the Bank of Japan could further relax its monetary policy in the near term, while the dollar was softer ahead of key U.S. retail sales figures for February.

The yen fell to a two-week low against the euro and hovered near a two-week trough versus the dollar as investors increasingly expect the Japanese central bank to further ease monetary policy at its meeting on March 16-17.

Government pressure on the BOJ for a further easing to support Japan's fragile economic recovery is simmering, with Finance Minister Naoto Kan saying on Friday he hopes the BOJ will help beat deflation.

Sources familiar with the central bank's thinking say it is considering expanding special money market operations, and analysts say the policy moves may be guided by a desire to weaken the yen..

"Expectations of an imminent easing in BOJ policy are slowly building up, being one reason behind the yen's weakness in the past few days," said Mitsuru Sahara, chief manager of currency derivatives trading at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ.

But even if the BOJ shifts policy next week any further fall in the yen is expected to be limited by repatriation inflows ahead of Japan's financial year-end on March 31.

Lots of dollar offers from Japanese exporters await in the 91-93 yen range, traders said.

"The dollar may rise to around 91.50 yen," said Mitsubishi UFJ's Sahara. "But it still lacks momentum to rise sharply above that."

The dollar inched up 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade to 90.62 yen, within sight of a two-week peak of 90.83 yen hit on trading platform EBS on Wednesday.

The euro struck a two-week high at 124.15 yen on EBS in early trade. Then light profit-taking pushed down the euro to 123.93 yen, up 0.1 percent on the day.

Activity was subdued in Asia with investors awaiting U.S. retail data at 1330 GMT for clues to the dollar's direction as the figures could show consumer spending taking a hit and hurting overall prospects of a durable economic recovery.

A Reuters survey forecasts a 0.2 percent decline in sales, compared with a 0.5 percent increase in January..

The dollar index was barely changed at 80.308 with immediate support at 80.239 and more around 79.80 -- its March 3 low.

"U.S. retail sales are expected to be soft, probably the weakest since September 2009," Westpac said in a note. It said the effect on consumer spending of snowstorms that blanketed parts of the U.S. last month left markets guessing how strong the figures would be.

"About all we can safely predict is that a 1 percent rise in retail sales would encourage more 'risk on' trades. Naturally, we are not expecting such a number."

The euro stood at $1.3678, steady from late New York trade.

But the euro remained under pressure after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday the first priority for Greece was to win back the confidence of financial markets and the debt-stricken country's first steps were a positive start..

The single currency has lost over 4 percent this year as worries about a default by Greece on its sovereign debt took centre stage and concerns intensified about other economies such as Portugal and Spain.

The euro was steady at 1.4622 Swiss francs early in Asian trade, having hit a session high of 1.4631 on Thursday. The dollar was marginally firmer at 1.0691 francs.

The Swiss franc fell on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said it would act "decisively" to counter any excessive rise in the Swiss currency. The SNB has in the past intervened during Asian trading time to drive down the franc. The Swiss central bank's announcement came as it left interest rates on hold and said signs of an economic recovery were becoming more tangible.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.2 percent to $0.6988 after core retail sales for January came in lower than expected, backing the central bank's view that rates were unlikely to be raised in a hurry.. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag; Editing by Michael Watson)

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