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Swedish, Norwegian crowns firmer vs euro in 12 mths-Reuters poll

Published 06/03/2010, 09:15 AM
Updated 06/03/2010, 09:19 AM

* Swedish crown seen at 9.3 vs euro in 12 months

* Swedish crown seen at 8.0 vs dollar in a year

* Norwegian crown seen at 6.5 vs dollar in 12 months

By Nicholas Vinocur

STOCKHOLM, June 3 (Reuters) - The Norwegian and Swedish crowns, northern Europe's largest currencies, are expected to strengthen against the euro but weaken against the dollar in the next 12 months, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The Swedish crown has recovered some ground against the dollar and gained steadily against the euro since the start of 2010, firming as worries over a debt crisis in southern Europe shook confidence in the single currency.

Analysts polled by Reuters see the trend continuing against the euro, with the crown firming to 9.3 in 12 months from 9.5 on Thursday, according to a median forecast of 33 analysts.

Against the dollar, however, the crown is seen weakening to 8.0 in a year from 7.7 on Thursday.

Analysts said the Swedish currency would gain against the euro due to expectations that the central bank will start raising interest rates as early as July 1 against a backdrop of improving economic prospects.

"The main factors are Riksbank rate hikes, continued growth outperformance relative to trading partners ... and overall sound economic fundamentals," said Carl Hammer, a currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

Worries over the possibility that Greece could default on some of its government debt payments have battered the euro and could push it even lower against most European trading partners, helping the crown, Hammer added.

But the crown is expected to lose ground against the dollar in the coming year, with the U.S. economic recovery gathering momentum as euro zone governments tighten their belts.

"The basic story is that the U.S. recovery is picking up steam. At the same time the euro outlook has become more gloomy due to the sovereign debt crisis," said Cecilia Skingsley, head analyst at Swedbank.

Sweden's economy looks set to expand more than 3 percent this year, according to the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), a leading government research body, outpacing the more sluggish pace of growth in much of the euro zone.

While the rest of Europe has kept borrowing costs low to avoid strangling fragile growth, Norway recently hiked its key policy rate for the third time since autumn last year as the oil-based economy outpaced the euro zone.

In 12 months, the Norwegian crown was seen at 6.5 against the dollar against 6.4 on Thursday. Versus the euro the crown is seen strengthening to 7.6 against 7.9 currently.

However, with another rate hike expected in September, analysts highlighted risks if the Norwegian crown continued to strengthen.

"The Norges bank is fighting fiercely against strength in Nokkie (Norwegian crown) to keep it from leading to deflation," Hammer said.

(Editing by Toby Chopra)

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