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UPDATE 2-EU says Portugal may need more fiscal cuts

Published 04/14/2010, 08:44 AM
Updated 04/14/2010, 08:48 AM

* EU: plan ambitious, concrete, but marred by risks

* EU: Portuguese growth may be lower than expected

* EU: Portugal needs to boost productivity, competitiveness

(Updates with details, background)

By Marcin Grajewski

BRUSSELS, April 14 (Reuters) - Portugal may need additional fiscal cuts this year to rein in its wide budget deficit as economic growth and government revenues may prove lower than expected, the European Commission said on Wednesday.

The European Union's executive called the Portuguese medium-term fiscal plan "ambitious and quite concrete" but noted it focused mainly on 2011 onwards, and said the country should improve its competitiveness, overhaul loss-making state firms and lower its ballooning current account deficit.

The Commission's assessment offered some guidance to those investors who believe Portugal could be the next weak link in the euro zone after Greece's debt crisis.

Portugal plans to cut the country's budget deficit to below the EU's ceiling of 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2013 from 9.4 percent last year when the country was hit hard by the economic crisis.

"Achieving the ambitious fiscal consolidation path may require efforts beyond those outlined in the programme," the Commission's report said.

"First, the outlined revenue performance and expenditure containment may be difficult to attain on the basis of the announced measures, already in 2010," it added.

Portugal's forecast that its economic growth will accelerate from 0.7 percent this year to 0.9 percent in 2011, 1.3 percent in 2012 and 1.7 percent in 2013 may not materialise.

"There is the risk that a lower-than-assumed GDP growth would dampen revenue growth and jeopardise the fall in the expenditure-to-GDP ratio," the report said.

Still, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn called the plan "ambitious and quite concrete", despite risks in Portugal, homeland of European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

CAREFUL IMPLEMENTATION, REFORMS NEEDED

The government hopes its plan will convince markets and EU peers that Portugal will tackle deficits and control its debt thanks to measures such as wage moderation in the public sector and capping personal and company tax breaks.

The costs of protecting Portuguese government debt against default rose on Wednesday along with those of Greece. [ID:nLDE63D15P]

Euro zone countries have been forced to offer Greece massive aid to try to prevent it from defaulting and to end tensions in the euro currency area.

In its recommendation for Portugal, the Commission said it should:

* achieve the 2010 deficit target of 8.3 percent of GDP, if necessary by adopting additional consolidation measures;

* back up the strategy to bring the deficit below 3 percent by 2013 by the timely implementation of concrete measures; stand ready to adopt further consolidation measures;

* improve the quality of public finances;

* raise productivity and potential GDP growth in a sustained way, to boost competitiveness and to narrow the large external imbalances. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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