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Regeneron slump continues as analysts turn more cautious

Published 09/24/2024, 12:09 PM
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Investing.com -- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN) shares are down a further 4% Tuesday, with analysts turning more bearish on the stock with both RBC Capital and Leerink Partners expressing growing concerns over the future of the company's flagship Eylea franchise, leading to tempered expectations for the stock.

The latest setback comes from the District Court of West Virginia's denial of Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN)'s motion for a preliminary injunction against Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), clearing the way for the launch of a biosimilar version of aflibercept (Eylea).

RBC Capital commented, "The expectations are that the launch of biosimilar aflibercept may be imminent." While the firm had already anticipated a biosimilar launch by early 2026, this earlier-than-expected development has sparked concern.

RBC has now lowered its price target for Regeneron from $1,380 to $1,252, citing potential erosion in the Eylea franchise's U.S. ophthalmology sales, which they now forecast at $3.4 billion, down from a previous estimate of $3.8 billion.

Despite this, RBC remains optimistic about Regeneron's broader pipeline, maintaining an Outperform rating and noting that growth from other parts of the company's portfolio should offset the impact on the ophthalmology franchise.

In contrast, Leerink Partners took a more cautious stance, downgrading Regeneron from Outperform to Market Perform and lowering their price target from $1,175 to $1,077.

The firm explained, "The trigger for the downgrade was a negative Eylea 2 mg biosimilar preliminary injunction ruling, which creates uncertainty about prospects for the U.S. Eylea franchise."

The firm highlighted that U.S. Eylea sales could represent 23% of Regeneron's total 2025 revenue, making this development particularly significant for the company's profitability.

As the biosimilar threat looms, both RBC and Leerink point to uncertainties surrounding the adoption of Eylea HD and the broader commercial potential of Regeneron's pipeline.

The more than 4% decline on Tuesday adds to Regeneron's 4.6% fall on Monday. It is down around 12.5% in the last month.

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