* Better-than-expected global demand helps in July-Sept
* Sales growth, cost cuts to outweigh Japan fx losses
* Hyundai on fast track with new products, won advantage
* Own-brand Chinese carmakers to suffer, JVs to surge
* Indian car makers to face margin pressure
By Chang-Ran Kim, Asia autos correspondent
TOKYO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Asia's top automakers including Toyota Motor Corp and Hyundai Motor Co will likely post big jumps in quarterly earnings thanks to better-than-expected global car demand and further cost cuts.
Japanese car makers are hurting from a stronger yen but will likely manage big cost reductions and have enough of a profit cushion from the first half to warrant an upward revision to their conservative annual guidance, analysts said.
"Global auto demand was surprisingly good," said Kurt Sanger, auto analyst at Deutsche Securities in Tokyo. "There were concerns that we would be flat to negative, but July-September saw 4-5 percent global growth in a quarter that people expected no growth."
Vehicle sales exceeded expectations in Japan and the rest of Asia, while they were in line in the United States and Europe, Goldman Sachs analyst Kota Yuzawa said.
With higher raw materials costs not expected to fully hit Japanese automakers until October, Toyota, Nissan Motor Co and Honda Motor Co are seen reporting operating profit growth of between 50 percent to 150 percent in their second quarter.
Despite the dollar's plunge to 15-year lows around 81 yen -- or 12-13 yen weaker than the average for July-September last year -- consensus forecasts for the full year to March 31 are far higher than Japanese companies' own guidance.
Among the top three Japanese automakers, analysts said Toyota was in a relatively tough spot because it produces a high 40 percent of its vehicles at home, exporting about half of that.
If Toyota lowers its dollar rate assumption to 80 yen for the October-March second half, from the current 90 yen, that would translate into a forex loss of 150 billion yen. By comparison, Honda built less than 30 percent of its cars in Japan last month.
HYUNDAI POWERS AHEAD
South Korean carmaker Hyundai and its affiliate Kia Motors are also expected to report solid earnings for their third quarter, driven by brisk sales of new models and as they enjoy a price advantage over their Japanese rivals.
In contrast to the yen, the South Korean won stayed at favourable levels, boosting profits of cars sold abroad. Armed with a wide range of compact cars and improving brand power, Hyundai and Kia continued to outperform in many markets.
"Market conditions are unfavourable to carmakers. But the (relatively) poor performance of their rivals and their strength in the compact car segment will benefit Korean carmakers," said Ahn Soo-woong, an analyst at LIG Investment & Securities.
With sales momentum picking up, analysts said they expected Hyundai and Kia, which together rank fifth in global car sales, to report record earnings in the final quarter despite a strengthening won.
CHINA MIXED, INDIA POSITIVE
In China, top-ranked SAIC Motor Corp is expected to report a more than 40 percent rise in net profit thanks to solid demand for models made at its car ventures with General Motors Co and Volkswagen AG.
But those counting heavily on domestic brands to drive sales, such as FAW Car and Chongqing Changan Automobile Co, are suffering.
"Whenever there is a market slowdown, those with established brands always prevail. This is exactly what happened in the past few months," said Chen Liang, an analyst with Huatai Securities.
FAW Car, part of major state automaker FAW Group which makes the self-developed Besturn sedans, has warned of a fall of up to 18 percent in its third-quarter earnings. Changan Auto has estimated an 8 to 24 percent fall.
Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co is also expected to post weak third-quarter earnings, having undershot its sales forecasts. JPMorgan expects BYD's per-share earnings for July-September to fall 47 percent.
Indian car makers Maruti Suzuki India Ltd and Tata Motors Ltd should report higher sales on robust demand but could face a decline in profitability in coming quarters due to a rise in raw material prices, analysts said.
"The question is not of demand but at what price point they are getting customers," Vineet Hetamasaria, a Mumbai-based analyst at PINC Research, said regarding top brand Maruti.
"It's a very competitive market, and they have not been able to fully pass on cost increases."
China's SAIC will be among the first Asian automakers to report July-September results, on Oct. 27. (Additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Fang Yan in Beijing, Prashant Mehra in Mumbai and Bharghavi Nagaraju in Bangalore; Editing by Lincoln Feast)