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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: June 18 - 22

Published 06/17/2012, 06:10 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week unchanged against the Swiss franc on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of key elections in Greece, which could determine the country’s future in the euro zone.

USD/CHF hit 0.9479 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since June 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9501 by close of trade on Friday, unchanged on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9463, the low of May 23 and resistance at 0.9573, the high of June 14.

Markets were jittery as the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds climbed to a euro-era high on Thursday, after ratings agency Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating by three notches to just above junk status, citing its rising debt burden and weakening economy.

The spike in borrowing costs came in spite of efforts to insulate Madrid from the effects of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis by agreeing on a EUR100 billion aid package for Spanish banks.

Spanish 10-year bond yields eased back to settle at 6.87% on Friday, but remained close to the critical 7% threshold which prompted bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Meanwhile, the greenback was weighed by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may announce fresh stimulus measures following its meeting next week after a recent string of weak economic data.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a six-month low in June, fuelling concerns that economic growth is faltering. Separate reports showed that an index of manufacturing activity in New York dropped sharply in June, while U.S. manufacturing output fell in May for the second time in three months.

Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank said on Thursday that it was keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.0%, in a widely anticipated decision and added that it will continue to maintain liquidity on the money market at an exceptionally high level.

The central bank reiterated that it was prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities in order to enforce the 1.20 minimum exchange rate imposed on the euro in September.

The SNB also revised up its growth forecast for this year to 1.5% from its March forecast of "close to" 1% growth.

In the week ahead, investor sentiment is likely to be decided by the outcome of Sunday’s elections in Greece, while a G-20 summit due to start Monday may produce fresh measures to combat the crisis in Europe.

Meanwhile, market participants will be closely watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, June 18

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations are to begin a two-day summit in Mexico.

Tuesday, June 19

The U.S. is to publish official reports on building permits and housing starts, leading indicators of health in the housing sector.

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations are to hold a second day of talks at a summit in Mexico.

Wednesday, June 20

Switzerland is to publish a ZEW report on economic expectations, a key indicator of economic health.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement and economic projections. The data is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to discuss the monetary policy decision. The U.S. is also to release government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, June 21

Switzerland is to produce official data on trade balance and industrial production.

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims, followed by preliminary data on manufacturing activity and an industry report on existing home sales. The country is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.


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