* TAIEX index seen at 9,500 at end 2011
* Rising interest rates a concern
By Carol Lee and Faith Hung
TAIPEI, March 24 (Reuters) - Taiwan's stock market should pick up from June and end 2011 with firm gains, though the outlook is cloudier following the devastating earthquake in Japan, one of Taiwan's top markets and a source of orders for its hi-tech firms, a Reuters poll found.
A Reuters poll of 13 analysts forecast the benchmark TAIEX index to end this year at 9,500, a rise of around 11 percent from Thursday's close of 8,576.4 and improving on 2010's 9.6 percent gain.
However, the poll was mostly taken prior to the earthquake that devastated large parts of Japan and hit its industries hard -- industries that are big users of Taiwan products. That could crimp the outlook for some of Taiwan's exporters, though it may not necessarily mean long-term declines.
"Some Taiwan component makers actually have opportunities to benefit from the Japan earthquake on orders shifting from Japanese rivals," said Mike Fang, a fund manager at Paradigm Asset Management. Such companies included Nan Ya Plastics and Compeq Manufacturing.
"Unless Japan's economy declines sharply after the quake, global stock markets would not retreat substantially further than they had since last week."
Other sectors that may get a boost from Japan's woes are Taiwan's chemicals and plastics sectors, which may see demand rise as Japanese competitors struggle to recover.
Currently the TAIEX index stands down about 4 percent for the year to date, its trend roughly in line with forecasts at the beginning of the year for a dip followed by a pickup from the second half.
That pick up was in part seen as being due to presidential elections set for March. Ruling parties in Taiwan traditionally use funds to boost the stock market, which has a very high proportion of individual retail investors, ahead of polls.
CHINA SHOP
This year an extra boost from mainland Chinese money is also possible given China's attempts to woo political rival Taiwan back into its fold through a far-reaching economic rapprochement that has encompassed trade deals which have already given a big boost to the local stock market.
With China anxious to preserve the political status quo at the elections, it may be tempted to allow money into the market to give the ruling party's re-election chances a big boost.
Tourism shares have been major beneficiaries too as Taiwan moves to allow more mainland tourists in, a trend that is likely to continue and may offset any loss of tourist revenue from fewer Japanese visitors.
Monetary policy on both sides of the Taiwan Strait may be one concern for the market this year, Fang said.
"There's lingering concern in the market that China, and Taiwan, among other emerging markets, will raise interest rates several times this year to curb inflation. That is something to watch for since it will affect consumption into 2012."
(For poll data click on) (For other stories from the poll click on) (Reporting by Carol Lee and Faith Hung, writing by Jonathan Standing, additional polling by the Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)