* Index to gain 5 percent by mid-2011, 16 percent by end-2011
* Corporate earnings, milder inflation to support in 2011
* Investors prone to herd like behaviour in short term
* Excessive fears over tightening steps weigh on sentiment
By Farah Master
SHANGHAI, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Shanghai's speculator-driven stock market is set to bottom by January before recovering to gain 5 percent by mid-2011, with concern over domestic economic policy and money market conditions weighing on investors for now.
The Shanghai Composite Index, down 13 percent so far this year, has been prone to highly volatile swings, dropping some 30 percent by July and jumping 12 percent in October.
Retail investors that account for the majority of market turnover, typically act in a herd like manner buying and selling on sentiment and the availability of cash in the market.
Still, China's turbulent stock market is likely to rise to 3,000 points by the middle of next year, according to a poll of 13 analysts conducted over the past week.
But eight out of 10 of the analysts polled suggest the index will first fall to around 2,675 points before the end of January, a drop of some 6 percent from Wednesday's close of 2,848.55, before picking up again.
A Reuters poll in September saw the benchmark index dropping to 2,525 points by the end of 2010.
"In the first half of next year, fears over the strengthening of tightening measures are set to weaken, but by the second half the broader picture is good and there will be larger scope for investors due to the government's five-year plan," said Zhong Hua, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai.
Analysts expect strong corporate earnings and milder inflation in the coming year to support the Shanghai Composite, with many confident that inflation can be controlled.
"As a result of timely government policy initiatives, we have full confidence and are optimistic this will show in the market over the next 12 months," said Charlie Chen, a hedge fund manager at MegaTrust Investment in Shanghai.
While China has boasted one of the strongest economic growth performances this year, its stock market has continued to flirt with the world's worst performing bourses, as policy controls to rein in real estate speculation and a clamp down on bank lending, spooked investors.
Recent moves to control escalating inflation, which hit a 25-month high in October, have also dampened sentiment in the short term. Official measures have included increases in banks' reserve requirement ratios to record highs and the first rise in benchmark interest rates in nearly three years.
Wang Aochao, an analyst with UOB Kay Hian in Shanghai, who was very bullish on the market in the last poll, said he has changed his outlook in the short term.
"The market is under pressure from the impact of government policy, but in the medium term the index should hopefully recover, with an important driving force being company earnings."
Inflation is expected to lessen next year with policy measures taking effect, while analysts expect the market to become more familiar with ongoing tightening policy.
The Communist Party's top leaders declared that China would switch to a more "prudent" monetary policy from a "moderately loose" stance, a move that has been priced into the stock market in recent weeks.
Analysts said that investors are set to focus on sectors set to benefit from the government's $1.5 trillion investment plan targeted at seven strategic industries, from alternative energy to biotechnology.
"In December, China may again raise interest rates or reserve requirements so this year upward gains are likely to be limited," said Li Feng, manager of propriety trading at Fortune Securities in Shenzhen.
"But from a valuations angle, large cap stocks have a low price earnings ratio, meaning falls will also be limited."
(Additional reporting by Chen Yixin, Samuel Shen and David Lin, additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)