* Russian stocks to gain more than 20 percent over 2011
* Performance seen in line with last year
* Oil prices, energy deals driving Russian stocks
* Heavyweights Gazprom, oil companies to lead the way
By Nastassia Astrasheuskaya and Zlata Garasyuta
MOSCOW, March 24 (Reuters) - Russian stocks are on track to gain more than 20 percent over 2011, matching last year's growth, as high prices help shield the world's biggest oil exporter from global market volatility, a Reuters poll showed.
The poll of 16 analysts, taken over the past week, showed a median end-2011 forecast of 2,150 points for Russia's dollar-based RTS index, up 7.7 percent on Wednesday's close of 1,997. The index has risen 12.8 percent so far in 2011.
That would amount to a 21.5 percent gain in the year as an upward burst over the winter months is sustained despite the turmoil in the Middle East and the earthquake in Japan.
In contrast to Russia's double-digit growth, Brazil's Sao Paulo Bovespa index is off around 2 percent so far this year and Mumbai's Sensex is down about 11 percent.
"The Russian economy is coming back - high oil prices will balance the budget and there is evidence of a reform agenda. A reform of the oil tax regime for example would prompt earnings upgrades (of oil companies)," said Tom Mundy, head strategist at broker Otkritie.
The year-end forecast was little changed from the equivalent RTS poll in December, which saw the index ending the year at 2,100, as analysts remained wary of becoming too optimistic. Forecasts in the latest poll ranged from 1,850 to 2,550.
"We also see a degree of volatility. Strong oil prices are a function of the Middle East turmoil but as that resolves itself we see profit taking later in the year," Mundy said.
NARROWING GAP
High oil prices of around $115 a barrel have driven up the value of gas export monopoly Gazprom and top oil producers Rosneft and LUKOIL, analysts said.
Those three companies make up nearly a third of RTS's $1 trillion capitalisation and will therefore drive the entire index, while recent Rosneft joint ventures with BP and ExonnMobil have encouraged outside investors.
Saxo bank analyst Peter Garnry, who gave the most optimistic forecast of 2,550 points, said the valuation gap between Russian and Brazilian markets is currently around 35 percent but shrinking.
"We think the gap will keep narrowing and, combined with the demand for energy, the Russian market will do quite well in 2011 and could actually be one of the best stock markets to be in," he said.
Deutsche Bank highlighted that pro-Western initiatives such as Russia's expected accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and its $32 billion privatisation plan could ease political risks in the eyes of investors.
"The expected accession to the WTO, further development on privatisation and upside risks to our oil price forecasts (of $101 per barrel) are all drivers," said Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief strategist at the bank, who gave one of the highest year-end forecasts of 2,300.
(Additional reporting by John Bowker, writing by John Bowker and Nastassia Astrasheuskaya; additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit)